After lows of 25-32 Sunday morning, we shot up to 50-55 for Sunday.
This, after 40s Saturday. Both days were breezy to windy with peak gusts Saturday up to 36 mph in the viewing area & 32 mph Sunday.
Any precipitation has been spotty to isolated & light.
Cold front will pass through late today-this evening with clouds & a couple isolated showers with brisk winds.
Highs in the 50s to 60 are likely.
Note the surface high that comes in tomorrow with cooler weather as a second, potent, Arctic front approaches.
It will turn cooler tomorrow with only really two more brief warm spells seen until late November to early December with these intrusions of Arctic air.
MJO shows greater influence now to the weeks on paper with stronger Phase 5 to 6 to 7, 8.
5 to 6 to 7 to 8 show this to be a mild, wet phase here overall.
NAO is not overly negative. AO a bit more, but nothing major.
So if the MJO is warm, wet phase with greater influence & NAO is not especially negative, what is causing the cold outbreaks to intrude now?
Much of it is the North Pacific with multiple typhoons racing northward around the Far West ridge (with all of the California fires) to Alaska & the Bering Sea.
They create big trough there & big ridge in west U.S. & west Canada.
This make for troughiness in eastern U.S. that dominates the pattern & overshadows other influences.
As said before, this is about seeing which player on the floor dominates at different times.
After cool Wednesday, some showers Thursday change to some snow showers as much colder air races in.
Strong Arctic high will be around, followed by brief surge of warm air before another Arctic high comes in around & after mid-November.
Here somes the Arctic air Thursday PM after brief warm-up Wednesday or Wednesday night to Thursday.
Here it is Friday with temperatures well-below normal.
We warm up near mid-November, but Arctic air is looming.
It is unleashed mid-month & onward.
Here we are getting into late month with below normal precipitation.