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November 25, 4 PM Weather Forecast Update: Significant Storm with Rain, Storms, Wind, Blizzard & Arctic Blast

Blizzard will be just to our northwest, but here, we are still looking at a substantial storm of wind, rain, few storms, snow & Arctic blast..

Posted: Nov 25, 2018 3:28 PM
Updated: Nov 25, 2018 4:23 PM

I will have another forecast update out later this evening.

-Chad

CURRENT WATCHES, WARNINGS & ADVISORIES........

Check out the Blizzard Warnings & it is still November!  This is going to be a historic blizzard for parts of central & northwestern for the month of November.  Such weather in November is rare in that area.

Wind Advisories are also popping up.  They are now right up to the stateline. 

40s to 60 OVER THE AREA WITH SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT.....RAINFALL & A FEW T'STORMS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING.......

Warm front from the big storm system is laid up over the area right now with 46-48 in our northeastern counties to low 50s at Lafayette to temperatures as high as around 60 in the far south.  This is why it is never one temperature fits all in the area & you have to show highs for the entire viewing area! 

Winds are more east north of the front & more southerly south of it.

This is a very strong, dynamics storm system.  Note the rainfall overspreading area this evening-tonight, but also note some orange/red cores indicating some t'storms mixed in. 

This is simulated future radar fomr the NAM model for now to Monday midday:

CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE VIEWING AREA IN THE ROUGHLY 5-9 A.M. TIME FRAME FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST..........

Here is the change over from rain to snow in rough estimates. 

Change-over timing:

Newton, Jasper:  Around 5 a.m.

Pulaski, White, Benton:  Around 6 a.m.

Cass, Carroll, Tippecanoe, Warren:  Around 7 a.m.

Miami, Clinton, Montgomery, Fountain, Howard:  Around 8-9 a.m. 

TUMBLING TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH WINDS & THE RAIN TO SNOW.........

Here is a closer view of the change-over from 40s & 50s with rain & a few t'storms to tumbling temperatures & snow as winds really crank up on backside of system. 

The steady snow will taper will taper to snow showers & flurries early to late afternoon.  Flurries will taper tomorrow evening-night. 

Winds will slowly decrease as temperatures fall from 30-35 in the morning to 22-27 by mid afternoon.  Wind chills will drop to the single digits & lower teens.

TOTAL SNOWFALL BY MONDAY EVENING.........

Up to 3" of snow is possible along the Kankakee River with 1-2" for the rest of Newton & Benton to Pulaski & northern Benton & White counties.  1" or less is possible elsewhere. 

Historic November accumulations of up to 20" with +5-FOOT drifts are likely over parts of western Illinois.  It is looking like the biggest snowfall & coldest weather so early in the year there since 1880.  This would be impressive in January, let alone November.  Some thunder & lightning is also possible with the snow with 2" per hour rates.

HIGH WINDS.......PEAKING MONDAY MORNING.........WIND/SNOW COMBO = ROUGH DRIVING WITH POOR VISIBILITY & SLIPPERY ROADWAYS...........

Note the high winds late, late tonight & into tomorrow (especially in the morning) with a few gusts exceeding 50 mph at times (easilty sustained 20-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph).  Wind Advisory over the area is likely with the possibility that even parts of the area may be under a High Wind Warning.

Overall, the highest winds over the area should be in the 6 a.m.-11 a.m. time frame.  Even minor snowfall accumulation will blow around greatly & conditions will be difficult for travel with slushy, slippery accumulation & just trying to keep a small car on the road will prove difficult.  High-profile vehicles will also be affected.  Greatly-reduced visibility is likely, especially in areas that see greater than 1" of snow.

A few limbs & trees may come down & a few isolated showers outages are possible.

Check out those +60 mph gusts in the area that will see the heaviest snowfall!  Impressive!

COLDEST WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER 27-28 SINCE 1977/1996...........

Tuesday looks like the coldest November 27 high temperature since 1977 with a projected high of just 26.

The low temperature Tuesday morning has the potential to be the coldest since 1996 with 11.

MORE SNOW WITH RECORD COLD DOWN THE ROAD WITH COLDEST WEATHER SO EARLY IN THE YEAR SINCE RECORD COLD SNAP OF DECEMBER 1989.........

Additional opportunities for ice & snow will occur down the road as we get into December.

It still looks like record cold could occur in mid-December.  I would not be surprised to see lows of -20 to -10 by December 11-12.  This would be the coldest such weather so early since 1989.

Stratospheric warming episode is on tap, which signals a weakening of the Polar Vortex.  This flaccidity developing in the Polar Vortex will allow a chunk of record cold air to move southward.  Combine that with high potential of snowpack & the stage is set for brutally cold weather for mid-December.

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Areas of Patchy Fog Early with Continued Warmth.
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