Temperatures as of 2:35 p.m. vary from 69-80 over the viewing area with the warmest temperatures in our southwest. We are running 73-76 in Greater Lafayette.
The warmth is on the move northward as the warm front moves northward with temperatures as high as 86 south of I-70. Terre Haute is in the lower 80s & southwest of Bloomington, temperatures have eclipsed 85. The Indy metro is now reaching around 80 to the lower 80s.
The hot spot in Indiana right now is 87 at Tipsaw Lake USFS government weather station in southern Indiana's Perry County. The cool spot is 55 at South Bend Airport ASOS.
Severe weather drought continues with not even a minor event since February 2017 & not a big event since June of 2016 & August 2016.
We can't seem to line up the ingredients in sync, even when they line up a few days out. It is like trying & trying to make good cookies & you just can't nail the recipe exactly down. Think of it as trying to make spaghetti sauce exactly like your mother used to make & you just can nail that taste down.
Regardless, there is a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather creeping into our western counties this evening. Isolated severe storm or two may make it into the area.. Threat would be mainly wind.
Best wind fields, dynamics & shear line up west of our area & developing storms will tend to outrun those parameters. Also, lapse rates are not great, resulting in a lack of robust, deep CAPE.
Note the lines & clusters of severe storms to our west from Illinois & Wisconsin to Arkansas, western Tennessee, westward to Kansas, Oklahoma & Missouri this evening.
That is where the better parameters are lining up for severe. I would make the arguement that a SLIGHT RISK "blob" should be painted over part of Missouri & Illinois to southeastern Iowa.
The leftovers come into our area 11 p.m.-6 a.m. as a loosely-organized, line & band of rain & storms.
Given intrusion of some drier air at the mid-levels & thus downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) of up to 800 J/kg, a couple isolated gusts & overall gustiness with some of the showers/storms makes sense.
The meso-scale models show this, as you can see it in the HRRR model below. Note that 43-48 knot (50-55 mph) storm wind core in Benton to southern Jasper County as the rain/storms come in.
Surface CAPE will only be around 500 J/kg, but there is still some directional shear in the lowest 5000' as the the far eastern edge of 40- to 50-knot low-level jet sneaks into our western tier of counties.
So, brief, weak, isolated tornado in our western counties cannot be ruled out if the lower LCLs (cloud bases) can be realized.
After this, a mass of rain with a leading line of storms will moved northeastward. An isolated severe storm is possible in Montgomery County in the 8-10 a.m. time frame with rain & some potential of thunder in lightning in other parts of the viewing area.
There is not much of a break in rainfall action tomorrow & thus not much time to really destabilize with a good deal of sun ahead of the cold front.
Nonetheless, better wind fields through the troposphere, dynamics & shear will migrate eastward a bit (you can see this in the wind-blown appearance of the showers/storms in the afternoon-evening in the projected radar image below).
Just a little bit of sun could induce isolated severe weather as the cold front approaches & passes through.
So, MARGINAL RISK looks good. It is currently set up, per SPC, from Williamsport to West Lafayette to Galveston & Grissom ARB & southward.
Friday looks partly cloudy, dry & cool with highs 56-62 after 39-46 in the morning, followed by partly cloudy skies & 62-67 Saturday (after 37-43 in the morning).
Cold front will pass late Saturday night-Sunday morning with scattered showers & lows 45-50.
Sunday should feature some afternoon-evening clearing, but it will be cool & breezy with highs 59-65.
Lows Sunday night of 37-43 are possible.
It will warm up with time next week & right now it looks like only a couple bouts of some rainfall May 15-24.
We may approach 90 on May 24 with multiple bouts of 80s possible May 18-31. We could even see multiple days approach 90 beyond May 24 to May 31.
Note the late May below normal rainfall trend.
Western Corn Belt continues to look wet, with the Eastern Belt drying nicely.
Also note the continued indication of an above normal temperature trend in late May (after our upcoming cool snap).
Early June rainfall outlook shows drying trend. It will still rain, but the overall totals look to average below normal for the first good 11 days of June.
Rockies & High Plains will be wet & cool.
Temperatures look to average above normal in early June.
Mid-June shows things getting a bit wetter overall with around normal rainfall.
Heavy rainfall & flooding risk in the Plains is projected to expand eastward in the Corn Belt to as far east as northern Missouri & Iowa.
Temperatures look to average pretty close to normal for mid-June.