It was a warm, windy Wednesday with a good chunk of the area seeing its warmest day of 2019 so far.
Line of storms is racing through northern Illinois with wind & isolated tornado risk.
Other storms are developing southward.
SPC has MARGINAL RISK for severe up to the state line for tonight.
Thinking band of rain with loosely-organized line of storms on the front of it will pass here 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. tonight-Thursday morning.
It is not out of the question that there could be an isolated severe storm or two in Newton, Jasper, Benton, Warren or Fountain counties as far eastern edge of stronger low-level jet side-swipe that area & wedge of drier air at mid-levels enhances some downdraft gusts.
There is still some directional shear in the lowest 5000' with a side-swipe stronger low-level winds coming into that area. Despite less than ideal LCLs, this makes for a non-zero brief, weak tornado risk in those counties as the showers & storms move in.
Some gustiness in the showers & storms are possible elsewhere in the area, but the gusts look sub-severe at a few reaching 40-55 mph. Again, it will be the downdraft CAPE & that mid-level dry air at work to bring about the gustiness.
Meso-scale model data shows the gustiness. Note the +55 mph gust projected in southern Warren.
After this, another wave of showers/storms may try to sneak back in from the south 7-10 a.m.
Some bits of sun & better dynamics & shear will result in scattered storms afternoon-early evening that may develop into a couple or multiple broken lines.
Isolated severe weather risk will exist through the day. Main threat is wind, but an isolated brief, weak tornado cannot be ruled out. A bit of isolated hail is possible.
Marginal risk of severe Thursday:
Cool Friday-Monday weather will occur with even some upper 30s in places Friday night-Saturday morning & Sunday night-Monday morning.
A period of showers is possible Saturday night-Sunday morning.
Warm front will lift through Tuesday late with some showers & storms late Tuesday-Tuesday night & more Wednesday.
Overall, a warmer (above normal temperatures), drier trend (bit below normal rainfall) will ensue for late May to early June.