May 7, 12:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Patchy frost, patchy fog....then locally-heavy rainfall....as Dogwood to Black Locust Winter continues...complicated Sunday forecast....severe weather risk & heat down the road.

Posted: May 7, 2021 11:43 AM
Updated: May 7, 2021 12:32 PM

1.  Lows this morning ran 34-40 with some patchy frost & patchy fog, especially in the north & northeast.

2.  A few showers & t'showers will bubble up today with risk of an isolated smaller hailer with clouds/sun & 61-69.  I canoot 100% rule out an isolated 1" hailer (severe from Montgomery to southern Clinton counties & southeastward to Indianapolis area).  It will be windy from the southwest to west, then northwest.

3.  Patchy frost is likely tonight with some patchy fog.  Some corn in fields may be burned a bit & tomatoes & peppers to annuals may be burned a bit if not covered, especially in rural areas & over the northern & eastern part of the viewing area.

Corn is in VE to V3 stage for the viewing area as a whole in a lot of fields, so corn is a bit susceptible to burning.  While it be browned to the ground like last year?  No.  Burned?  Yes. 

North of U.S. 24:  32-33

South of U.S. 24:  33-35

Along & South of 26 & east of US 231:  35-37

4.  Increasing clouds Saturday with 61-67.  Rain by late evening.

5.  Locally-heavy rainfall with some thunder Saturday night-Sunday AM to midday.  1-3" rainfall with strong east winds to 38 mph.

6.  Rain greatly diminishes Sunday afternoon with cloudy then mostly to some partly cloudy skies. 

HOWEVER..........THERE ARE SIGNS....that warm front may be shifting NORTHWARD Sunday late afternoon-evening.  IF THIS OCCURS, then severe weather risk will creep in.  MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters may easily creep in.  This makes Sunday's temperature forecast complicated.  It could be a situation where it is only 55 north & 72 south.  We will see.  This warm front position is a challenge.  Another 0.50-1.50" of rainfall could fall on top of the rainfall already received if the front is far enough north & we get the storms.

7.  39-45 Sunday night.........59-65 Monday with sunshine.

8.  Patchy frost Monday night with 33-39

North of U.S. 24:  33-35

South of U.S. 24:  35-39

9.  Tuesday: sun & 62-68

10.  Wednesday:  Showers & a few storms with 62-70 & severe risk south of the area, but will watch tongue of MARGINAL RISK may creep in.

11.  Thursday:  sun & 63-69

12.  Friday:  sun & 72-77.

13.  Saturday-Sunday-Monday:  Multiple rounds of showers & storms with locally heavy rainfall & return of 80s expected during this time.  Looks like some MARGINAL RISK Saturday & Sunday & then MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters Monday. 

14.  Severe risk possible around May 20

15.  Cooler bout of weather with lows in the 40s should follow with highs 60s to 70.

16.  Lots of heat to 90s arrives very late May, then severe risk near June 1.

17.  Then some cooler weather with brief Blackberry Winter, followed by heat of 90s.

18.  Some severe risk near June 11 amidst HEAT with 90s with +104 heat indices possible.

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Beautiful Week Ahead. Cooler, drier and less humid.
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