May 7, 2:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest outlook on timing of rainfall & what to expect beyond, all based on the latest data.

Posted: May 7, 2019 12:37 PM
Updated: May 7, 2019 2:25 PM

As of 2:05 p.m., temperatures vary from 77 south to 51 far north & 70 at the Purdue Airport at West Lafayette.

The temperature change is very pronounced over the front.  Morocco is 51, Rensselaer is 54, Monticello is 67, while I-65/28 weather station west of Frankfort is 77.  North side of Crawfordsville is 76.  Fowler is currently at 63.

So warm front is draped over the the area once again.

Highs today will run from 55 far northwest to 80 in the south & 71-75 around Greater Lafayette.  If the front can get farther northward, we have a chance to get to 76-79.

A couple isolated showers are possible this afternoon with clouds/sun (more clouds north).  Then, a wave of scattered showers & a few storms will develop pass this evening tonight.

An isolated, random, brief severe storm cannot completely ruled out along the warm front.

It will gradually lift northward as warm front gradually lifts northward.  A few showers & storms may last in the northwest to tomorrow morning.

Warm front should be north of our area tomorrow resulting in a warm, windy, humid day of clouds/sun after 60s in the morning. 

I am thinking more & more that Wednesday will be the warmest day of 2019 (so far) for the area, after multiple observation sites tied for the warmest day yesterday.

Highs of 76-82 are likely with 80-82 at Greater Lafayette.  Dew points will run 61-65, adding mugginess, which will make it feel a bit hot out (the wind will feel good though).

However, outflow boundary of all of the leftovers rain & storms to our west should get active Wednesday evening in our area.

Line of storms may develop on that boundary & pass through our area Wednesday evening in the 9 p.m.-12 a.m. time frame.

Main threat would be a few severe gusts (but isolated brief weak tornado risk is not zero due to directional shear in the lowest 5,000' of the troposphere) before the line weakens just northeast & east of our area.

The Storm Prediction Center has the entire area in MARGINAL RISK of severe weather.

Projected soundings suggests potential upgrade to SLIGHT for part of the area for Wednesday.  We will see what this evening's data holds..........whether it be a continuation of MARGINAL or an upgrade to SLIGHT.

After the rain & storms pass, it will be a warm, muggy night with lows in the 60s.

After that, line of storms with severe weather risk will rake areas south of us Thursday morning.  The line may clip Montgomery County.

The rain with the rain may overspread a chunk of the viewing area with some thunder possible.

That line will race northeastward & sun should appear there with strong southwest winds ahead of the cold front.

A new line of storms is projected to from on or just ahead of the cold front & pass here late afternoon-evening.

Some severe risk could occur.

However, such risk will be determined by how quickly we can destablize things & heat up after the morning rain.

It is unclear how much cloudiness will hang on.

Highs may still run in the 70s, however, with dew points potentially pooling at 65-70 ahead of the cold front.

Right now, Friday, Saturday, much of Sunday & Monday look dry & cooler with highs mostly in the 60s & lows near 41.

There is a weak cold front that passes Saturday night, which will tend to re-enforce the below normal temperatures.  Any rainfall with it looks light & scattered.

The chilly nights are noteworthy Friday-Monday, however.

Daily high & that days' morning low & overall temperature range for the viewing area as a whole:

FRIDAY:  Partly Cloudy...59/45...(55-62/43-48)

SATURDAY:  Partly Cloudy...65/40...(61-67/37-42)

SUNDAY:  Early Shower, Partly Cloudy...64/47...(59-65/44-49)

MONDAY:  Mostly Sunny...65/41...(61-67/37-45)

Then, rainfall will return to the area, but it does not look as heavy as what it looked like originally.

The totals are still a bit disheartening, but at least they are like 4, 5 or 6" right now.

It looks awful from Kansas to Missouri & Iowa. with 4-9" of rainfall.

It looks more like 1-2.5" here.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Overcast
74° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 74°
Kokomo
Broken Clouds
73° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 73°
Rensselaer
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 73°
Fowler
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 73°
Williamsport
Overcast
72° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 72°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
68° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 68°
Frankfort
Overcast
74° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 74°
Delphi
Scattered Clouds
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 73°
Monticello
Scattered Clouds
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 73°
Logansport
Scattered Clouds
72° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 72°
Warm Start, but Cooler Finish with Scattered Showers.
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