Highs today ran 59-70 with a few showers & storms 2-7 pm.
Pea hail reported in Warren, Montgomery & southeastern Carroll counties. Greatest coverage was in southern, southeastern & eastern counties at up to 40%. Little/no rain occurred in the northwestern counties.
Winds this evening gusted as high as 36 mph.
It is 41-49 as of 10:30 p.m., headed fo 32-37 (coldest northern Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton, Cass, northeast White to Miami counties).
Some frost & patchy shallow fog is possible (largely around water & low-lying areas).
Highs of 61-67 are expected Saturday (warmest southwest, coolest northeast & 65 Greater Lafayette).
After high & mid clouds increasing Saturday & gradually dim & fade away the sun, we go overcast by evening & showers will begin to move in after 7 p.m.
They may be virga at first & will then saturate down.
Widespread rainfall with increasing intensity will occur Saturday night as east winds increase to gusts to 35 mph with time.
Rain will become heavy at times late Saturday night & right through Sunday morning with embedded storms as intense band of forcing is focused north of the warm front. I can't even rule out a bit of pea hail from an embedded storm.
Winds will be strong Sunday morning, sustained at 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph, so that rain will be slamming against your east-facing windows.
That, with temperatures 43-49, will face for one raw, raw start to Mother's Day.
Heavy rainfall should decrease & then all rainfall larger taper altogether by midday.
A period of mostly cloudy to cloudy skies is expected with east winds 20-35 mph.
We then watch the warm front.
A wave of showers & storms is possible late afternoon-evening with the surface low & as it approaches, warm front will move north. The question is...........how far north?
If it moves far enough north, then MARGINAL RISK for severe may need to be pushed northward from current south of I-70 set-up to as far north as some of our southern areas. In that zone, warmer air would come in too with 40s & 50s north & 60s to 70 south.
Again, it is a bit unclear how far north warm front will get. 50 miles could make all of the difference.
South of the warm front, winds will be southerly, north of the front east & northeasterly with gusts to 35 mph.
Behind this, rain ends in the evening & strong northeast to north winds follow with gusts to 42 mph.
Temperatures will fall to 47-53 area-wide, followed by lows by Monday morning at 39-44 with some breaks in the clouds.
1-4" of rainfall is expected area-wide.
Right now, best potential of the highest totals of 3-4" is shaping up in two narrow bands:
One in the north from Kentland to Rensselaer to Winamac to Rochester & one in the far south from Kingman to New Market to south New Ross & Ladoga.
Monday should see sun/clouds with 57-65 (62 Greater Lafayette), then 34-39 with some frost Monday night.
After 61-67 Tuesday with sun, lows of 35-41 (38 Greater Lafayette) Tuesday night, Wednesday should feature some showers/storms with highs 63-70 (68 Greater Lafayette).
40s with rain tapering Wednesday night-Thursday AM will occur.
Thursday shows sun/clouds & 63-69 (66 Greater Lafayette).
72-78 is expected Friday, then windy, humid weather next weekend with 80s is expected.
Storms are likely Sunday-Monday.
Parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK.
Better severe risk is around May 20 with ENHANCED RISK parameters showing up here with 80s to some 90s.
Additional severe risk may return around May 23, but that does not look as vigorous as around May 20.
Locally-heavy rainfall is possible.
After cool-down, we should heat up to 90 & 90s by end of the month.
Trends still support severe weather around June 1.