SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

May 7, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Warmest day of 2019 (so far) & Marginal Risk of severe weather.

Posted: May. 7, 2019 10:41 PM
Updated: May. 7, 2019 11:23 PM

A few scattered showers are passing through the area now.  These will gradually move northward tonight.  A stray, isolated storm may pop along the warm front as elevated CAPE goes from virtually nil to perhaps 400 J/kg on far eastern edge of roaring Missouri to Iowa low-level jet late tonight.

Any scattered rain should be confined to the far northwest by morning as warm front races northward.

After lows tonight 44-55, we will skyrocket tomorrow to 77-85 (northeast to southwest) with dew points in the 60s & strong south winds to 33 mph.  It will feel very warm to even hot & a bit muggy.

It looks like the warmest year of 2019 (so far) for much of the viewing area.

Watch the warmth surge back northward & the area shooting up to 71-80 by midday.

A band of rainfall (with a bit of a line of storms on the front of it) looks to pass in the 9 p.m.-12 a.m. time frame Wednesday evening-night.

It does not look really impressive or really organized due to the best wind fields through the troposphere & dynamics setting up west of here. 

It will tend to outrun those wind fields & shear.

Mixed layer CAPE of 1000 J/kg is likely with a lack of better CAPE due to relatively warmer mid-level temperatures (rather weak low-level lapse rates).

Nonetheless, some surface convergence on the outflow boundary of the Plains severe weather outbreak leftovers (this band of rainfall) & a layer of mid-level dry air may lead to this rather loose, bit sloppy line of storms.  A couple isolated severe gusts are possible.

If the better wind fields, shear & dynamics can catch up, the results might be different with higher severe probabilities.

MARGINAL RISK fits this scenario.

Rainfall & some storms are possible Thursday morning.  This looks like a line for areas south of here.  It is not out of the question that an isolated severe storms sneaks into southeastern Montgomery County.

The rainfall will depart the entire viewing area by midday.

However, the cold front will be entering our northwestern counties by midday & will reach the heart of the area by late afternoon & exit in the evening.

Along it, a line of gusty showers & a few storms are possible.

It just looks like there may not be a long enough duration between the morning-midday rain & clouds & the cold front to really destablize things & make for even an isolated severe weather situation.

We will still monitor, however.

Highs should run 69-75 after balmy morning lows of 61-64 after being at 66-70 much of Wednesday night.

Brrrr!  We may get a freeze to southern Kansas Friday morning with lows 39-46 here!

Highs will only run 56-62 here Friday with partly cloudy skies & lows 37-43 Friday night.

60s Saturday will give way to 40s with some showers Saturday night to Sunday morning.

Highs Sunday will run 61-66 (with 37-43 Sunday night to Monday morning) with 67-72 Monday & 66-73 Tuesday as rain returns late in the day.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Kokomo
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Rensselaer
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 72°
Fowler
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 72°
Williamsport
Clear
75° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 75°
Crawfordsville
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Frankfort
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Delphi
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 73°
Monticello
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 73°
Logansport
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
A few storms are possible Saturday.
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