May 6, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

More showers & storms ahead after the warmest day of 2019 for parts of the viewing area.

Posted: May 6, 2019 11:05 AM
Updated: May 6, 2019 3:04 PM

As of 11:45 a.m., it is already 69-76 over the viewing area, headed for 76-82.  More multiple areas, this will be the warmest day of 2019, so far!

A few storms are possible late this afternoon-this evening in the area. 

They will pop in the far northwest & north first, then move southeastward.

A random isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

After that, we should be mostly dry through much of the night.

Frontal boundary will slide southward some & lake breeze front will make it into Newton, Jasper, western Pulaski & northwestern Benton counties.  Those areas will drop into the 40s.

Meanwhile, lows elsewhere will vary from 51-58 from north to south.

Main corridor of storms & severe weather risk will stay west of us.

The leftovers of the severe weather event to our west will pass Tuesday early morning to midday as some weakening off & on showers with some isolated thunder.

A cluster of some severe storms will occur over Missouri to southern Illinois, but not here.

Note the flare up off severe storms over southern Illinois & Indiana tomorrow afternoon-evening in the heat & humidity & notice the severe weather outbreak from Iowa to Oklahoma & Texas.

Some more scattered showers are possible in the after Tuesday afternoon-evening.

A few storms could make it into our southern areas where it will be warmer.

An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out there.

There will be a sharp difference in temperature tomorrow from 70s to 80 far south to 50-55 far north & around 65-70 at Greater Lafayette. 

It could literally be a situation of 63 on the White-Tippecanoe line & 75 on the Montgomery-Tippecanoe line.

Warm front will wobble back & forth in area Wednesday with 50s north & 70s to 80 south & near 73 at Greater Lafayette.

A couple waves of showers & storms are possible, mainly one in the morning along & near the front & another in the evening.

An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.  Front may sink back southward to south of I-74 in the evening, but then begin to migrate northward.

A few storms are possible Wednesday night-Thursday morning area-wide as warm front moves back completely north of the viewing area.

Temperatures in the north will rise to 62-66 with 66-69 over the rest of the area.

The U.S. NAM 3km model does show sunshine & 70s to 80s Thursday afternoon, then a flare up of storms on the outflow boundary of the decaying Missouri AM storms that will be moving eastward.

In this scenario, the flare up as a broken line of supercell in eastern Illinois & southwestern Indiana, then gell into a line with a couple LEWPs (S shapes in the line) or bows in the line.

It is still a few days out & if it stays too cloudy or we have too many showers & storms that form ahead of this feature, then severe risk WILL GO DOWN.

Right now, projected sounding shows strong wind fields from the southwest from 5000' to 40,000'

However, it also shows early in the storm development, a sharp wind shift from southeast & south-southeast to southwest in the lowest 3000' with a warm, moist boundary layer with pretty low LCLs (cloud bases).

Also, there is a layer of dry air in the mid levels for some severe gusts to get going (DCAPE to near 1000 J/kg).

This all suggests, a window of some tornado risk, especially early in storm evolution, then a transition more severe wind gusts as dry layer become more & more pronounced in the mid-levels.

Such parameters suggests ENHANCED RISK eventually for the area (IF this all holds).

We remain in a severe weather drought with the last barely severe weather event being in February 2017.

Prior to that, you have to go back to the August 2016 tornadoes & then before that, the June 2016 significant severe storms that produced +100 mph winds in White County with extensive damage around Brookston.

A few showers are possible early Friday, followed by some clearing, windy & cool conditions.

Highs Friday look to only run at 58-64 with 38-44 Friday night.

Saturday looks great with 67-72 with a southwest wind.

A few showers & storms are possible Saturday night, followed by a dry, but cool Sunday-Monday with highs 64-68 & lows 38-42.

The good news?  The main corridor of heaviest rainfall is shifting south of us, so totals are going down.

1.50-2.75" of rainfall is possible now-May 17 with 1-2" of that falling this week.  That means that 0.50-1" will fall next week, making planting conditions for you farmers even better late month with warmer, drier weather.

Some showers & storms are possible May 14-17 with highs in the 60s to 70s.

May 18-25 currently looks dry & turning MUCH warmer.  We will eventually see highs of 84-88.

Now there is good news farmers!

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Scattered Clouds
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Warm Start, but Cooler Finish with Scattered Showers.
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