May 6, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

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Posted: May 6, 2021 12:26 PM
Updated: May 6, 2021 2:13 PM

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Lows overnight ran 37-46 from northeast & east to west.

Temperatures as of 1 p.m. are running 50-60 over the viewing area with scattered showers.

Sun is appearing in central Illinois with temperatures surging into the mid 60s.

So, these showers will gradually depart, then new scattered showeres & storms will form in the sun & colder air aloft in Illinois & pivot east & southeastward.

Isolated sub-severe hail is possible in a couple of cells & a couple isolated +40 mph gusts cannot be ruled out.

Also, with the cold air aloft, there is considerable vorticity or spin.  A couple cold-core, landspout- or cold air funnel type funnel clouds are possible.

MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK for severe wind & hail is over southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana & down to northeastern Arkansas & western Tennessee.  Very cold air aloft, sunshine & a deep layer of dry air toward the surface will result in some intense wind gusts +70 mph from some cells there.  Given low freezing levels in that cold air aloft some +1.50" large hail is possible.

As for here, then, after clearing this evening (with strong northwest wind to 38 mph), some cloudiness returns part of tonight with a few showers from subtle cold pocket aloft.

Winds diminish later tonight & with clear skies, some patchy fog is possible. 

Some patchy frost is possible over Pulaski, northeastern White, Cass, Miami, northeastern Carroll & Fulton counties.  Lows of 35-41 (40 Greater Lafayette) are expected.

As for tomorrow, after clear skies early, winds pick up & cumulus develop with a few spotty showers/t'showers in the afternoon.  Isolated small hail is possible. West-northwest winds may gust to 38 mph.

Highs of 61-68 are likely.

After 36-44 Friday night (40 Greater Lafayette & some patchy frost Jasper, Pulaski, northeast White to Carroll, Cass, Fulton, Miami counties), clouds increase Saturday with east winds & highs 61-67 (66 Greater Lafayette) with northeast to east-northeast wind 5-15 mph.

Rain is likely Saturday evening-night to Sunday AM with some thunder.  Lows of 43-50 are likely (49 Greater Lafayette).

As for Sunday, it appears that the most widespread rainfall will occur morning to midday.  At this point, we may see some drying at timesin the PM.  Locally-heavy rainfall is possible Saturday night-Sunday AM with +1.5" in some areas.

Sunday is a bit tricky as position of warm front will play role in track of surface low.  This will tend to be guided by strong surface high over northwestern Ontario to northern Michigan.

50-80 miles could make all the difference as southern Indiana to Kentucky will be WARM & humid with southerly winds & severe weather risk, while it will be raw & cool north of the warm front with strong eastto northeast winds.

It appears that the warm front will stay south of I-74, keeping us cooler.  However, a shift in the warm front & it could bring severe risk & 70 to our southern counties, while the north is in the 50s.

To take a middle-ground approach for now, I went for highs mid 50s north to mid 60s south (61 Greater Lafayette).

A few showers are possible Monday-Tuesday with 60s with lows in the 40s, then rain & some storms Wednesday with upper 60s to 70s with MARGINAL RISK parameters sneaking in.

Thursday, Friday look dry as we warm toward & into 70s, then more active pattern with multiple rounds of showers & storms arrives with dry bouts in-between.

Temperatures will eventually warm up to summer levels in the 80s to 90 with dew points in the humid to muggy 60s to lower 70s.

Multiple opportunities for severe weather exist, but the main time frame for best risk is around May 20.  Locally-heavy rainfall will occur with some of these events with +1.5" rainfall amounts in a pretty short period of time.

After that spell, we dry & cool a bit, but hot, drier weather could occur at the very end of the month followed by a bout of severe weather in early June.

West Lafayette
Clear
84° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 82°
Kokomo
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 79°
Rensselaer
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 73°
Fowler
Clear
84° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 82°
Williamsport
Clear
81° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 80°
Crawfordsville
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 79°
Frankfort
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 79°
Delphi
Clear
78° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 78°
Monticello
Clear
78° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 78°
Logansport
Clear
77° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 78°
Beautiful Week Ahead. Cooler, drier and less humid.
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CountyCasesDeaths
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Hancock8541144
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Warrick7854156
Floyd7763180
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Boone6911103
Morgan6735141
Dubois6211118
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Cass5989108
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Noble579786
Jackson508374
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Whitley405642
Huntington402181
Steuben398659
Miami392568
Jasper386254
Knox375690
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Washington244534
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Fountain218347
Sullivan213943
Owen210858
Fulton201542
Jay200832
Carroll193420
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Perry186937
Rush175626
Vermillion173544
Franklin170135
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Parke148916
Pike137934
Blackford136032
Pulaski120047
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Ohio57811
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