May 5, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rounds of showers & storms return with some severe weather risk this week.

Posted: May 5, 2019 9:46 PM
Updated: May 5, 2019 11:05 PM

After a chilly foggy start with lows 39-44 Sunday morning, it was a great afternoon with highs 70-75.

Monday will feature a mix of sun & clouds with south-southwest winds 15-25 mph & highs 74-82 after lows in the 50s in the morning.  For some of you, Monday will be the warmest day of 2019 so far.

Dew points won't be completely out of control at 58-61.  However, it may contribute to some marginal mugginess in the area.  The main tongue of muggy dew points will occur west of us in Missouri & Illinois.

Some scattered storms are possible late in the day-evening as front begins to move back southward.

An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Scattered showers & storms are possible Monday night-early Tuesday.

The severe risk looks to stay mostly in western & central Illinois as storms weaken as they move eastward.

We will monitor to make sure a random storm doesn't hang on longer than expected (severe weather-wise), which would impact us.

Warm front will divide part of the area Tuesday.  Highs will vary from 55-77 from far north to far south.

Tough call for Greater Lafayette.  We could either see just 58 or 70 depending on exact position of front during the day.

Small movement northward would make a huge difference.  North of the front, it looks wet, gray & cool with northeast winds 15-25 mph, while winds will be light & variable along the warm front to south at 15-25 mph south of the front.

It looks showery over the area Tuesday with perhaps an isolated storm or two.

Note the severe storms along & south of I-70, south of our area in the heat & humidity.  80s are possible in that severe zone over southeastern Illinois & southern Indiana.

It is note out of the question that an isolated severe storm sneaks into our far southern borders of Fountain & Montgomery counties, especially if the warm front work farther northward than expected (even by just 40 miles).

Tuesday night looks breezy (from the northeast) foggy, drizzly & showery here with temperatures falling to 44-51 north to south over the area.

However, warm front should surge back northward Wednesday.  Winds should turn from northeast to east to southeast to southwest over our area from south to north through the day.

Note another day with a sharp temperature gradient along the warm front.  Note the warmth surging northward Wednesday.

By early afternoon, temperatures may very well vary from 52 north to 80 in the far south & around 65 at Greater Lafayette.

A surge to 70s in Greater Lafayette should occur by mid to late afternoon with 60s to 70 potentially reaching the north by late evening.

It looks like a wave of widespread rain & storms Wednesday morning to midday along & north of the warm front.

There could be some lulling as the warmth moves in & the rains depart.

However, some additional development of some scattered showers & storms may occur in the evening-Wednesday night.

A couple isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out. 

With warm front north of us Wednesday night, it should stay balmy & rather muggy area-wide.  Lows of 63-68 (with similar dew points) are likely with southwest winds at 10-20 mph.

First, Thursday looks pretty warm & humid & windy with strong south-southwest winds at 15-30 mph.

Second, it does look like a risk of severe weather given the strong winds through the troposphere, the projected surface instability & a pretty vigorous shortwave ejecting from the Plains.   low should be deepening quite a bit as it pivots through central Illinois, tracking northeastward to southwestern Michigan. 

This tends to support a pretty large severe weather episode from southern Michigan to Texas with a severe weather event here.

The Storm Prediction Center has a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather viewing area-wide.

However, I think the degree of severe risk & attendant temperatures will be determined by how many rounds of showers & storms occur Thursday & if they occur close together. 

This could result in substantial convective interuption & thus decreased overall severe risk. 

This could also affect how warm it gets, as well.

Indeed, we will be in the warm sector of the system, but if we are loaded with rounds & widespread heavy rainfall & storm action through much of the day, the temperatures will be held down.

So, best scenario for severe would be the round of rain & storms in the morning, then lulling with lots of sunshine & temperatures surging 76-82 with dew points 65-70.  This would mean scattered supercells/supercell clusters popping ahead of a developing squall line & a likely ENHANCED RISK of severe weather in the afternoon to evening

What would quell severe risk (even with nice dynamics & shear parameters) would be rounds of widespread showers & storms area-wide with lots of clouds & temperatures in the 60s to 70 as the system moves through.

There is not concrete agreement on how much rain & convection (storms) will really go through out the day ahead of the main part of the storm system.

Some data suggests that we will be loaded with rain & highs will only reach 66-70, but others suggest a window for destabilization & 77-82 with robust severe risk.

The Canadian GEM-GDPS model shows rain/storms in the morning, but lulling for sun & destabilization followed by some scattered storms preceding a squall line in the evening.

The U.S. GFS model keeps us loaded in rain Thursday with severe risk setting up from southern Indiana & southward.  It also has the surface low tracking farther southeast over the northwestern part of the viewing area, which would also tend to shift severe risk to the south some.

We will monitor & have more information as new data streams in over the next few days.

Of course, rainfall this week & next week overall will average above normal for the period & it tends to be a pretty wet time of year anyway.

Friday looks mostly cloudy with a few showers & highs 57-63 with lows Friday night (with clearing skies & diminishing winds) at 39-44.

Winds look to turn back to the southwest next Saturday with sunshine & highs 65-70.  Sunday looks dry & nice, too.

So, May 10-12 looks dry at the moment.

Some showers & storms are possible at times May 13-17 with temperatures varying from 50s north to 70s south & 60s in the heart of the area. 

The viewing area will tend to average below normal temperature-wise this period (normal is around 73).

Temperature anomalies overall for next week:

Total rainfall now to May 17 (1.5-3.5"):

Check out the big change May 18-20!  Wow!

Near 90 is possible South & North Dakota to western Minnesota.

We could see 83-88 as strong warm front suddenly works back northward & upper ridging builds!

It also looks dry & breezy to windy on these days for rapid soil drying!

Mean temperatures (high + low/ days) should run above normal overall late May to early June.

Rainfall looks to average overall below normal late May to early June.

This doesn't mean it won't rain much or at all during this time & that it will be hot the whole time.

It means that it will tend to turn hotter & drier for the period.

Here is where we have been & where we are with Arctic to Northeast U.S. to Southeast U.S. upper ridging with warmth, while cold in the Plains & northern Great Lakes. 

We have had tastes of both (more chill than warm, however).

Pattern begins to change next week as East ridge break & moves east & Arctic/Greenland major ridge starts to break a hair.

Lower heights will cooler weather will be common area-wide here.

Then pattern really breaks beyond that.  Arctic ridge weakens & moves west & troughing begins to move into Pacific Northwest.  Ridging begins to develop in the Plains late month.

Lots of upper ridging will be the story late, late May to early June with warm temperatures & drying weather here & over the Plains.

Article Comments

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Warm Start, but Cooler Finish with Scattered Showers.
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