May 4, 11 PM Now to Fall Outlook

Here is your short- & medium-range outlook.....& the ol' Long Ranger....

Posted: May 4, 2021 8:13 PM
Updated: May 4, 2021 10:52 PM

Alberta Clipper system will pivot through Thursday.

Clouds will increase Wednesday night-Thursday AM.  Lows will run 41-47 west to east.

Some scattered showers are possible near midday, then some sun will bubble up cumulus towers as cold pocket aloft pivots in.  With that, a scattering of showers & storms will occur. 

A couple to few cores of isolated sub-severe hail is possible.

Actually, parameters show a corridor of MARGINAL RISK from southeastern Illinois to northern Arkansas for Thursday.

South to southwest winds will turn to the northwest with time & become gusty to 33 mph.

Highs of 63-70 are likely (68 Greater Lafayette) with warmest readings in the south & coolest in the far north.

We should see clearing Thursday night with lows 40-46.

Friday will feature cumulus towers bubbling up with a few to some scattered showers & storms with risk of isolated sub-severe hailer or two. 

Highs will run 66-73 with northwest winds 10-23 mph.

Warm front will lift northward Saturday, leading to increasing high & mid clouds with northeast to east wind & highs 66-72 (68 Greater Lafayette).

Rainfall & some thunder is likely Saturday late evening-night to Sunday morning with east winds & lows in the 50s.

At this point, it appears that the north will clear Sunday PM with more clouds south.  Highs of 65-70 are likely (68 Greater Lafayette).

The warm front may be close enough to the area Monday & Tuesday for a few showers & storms with highs 67-72 & lows in the 47-56 range with mainly east winds.

It appears that the warm front has the best potential of moving through & north of the viewing area Wednesday in response to upper trough swinging into the Plains & surface low ejecting northeast Kansas to Wisconsin.

With that, temperatures may reach 77-82 with dew points in the 60s. 

Although the worst of the severe weather should stay south of our area in an area of strong upper diffluence between the Polar 7 Subtropical Jets from western Kentucky to Louisiana, we may still have some risk.

CIPS analog probabilities of severe weather Sunday-Wednesday of next week (May 9-12).  Our probabilities would tend to be centered on Wednesday.  Prior to that other data continues to suggest that any severe weather risk would stay south of our area.

May 13 looks dry with only a brief respite.

We will warm up rapidly in response to upper trough digging into the Plains.

Between May 14/15 & May 24 there appear to be 3 to 4 storm systems that pass & each one may have some severe weather risk, given their track. 

80 to the 80s look to dominate.

Around May 20 currently continues to be the main system for higher severe weather probabilities here.

CIPS analog probabilities for severe weather May 15-18:

CIPS analog Tornado Probabilities May 15-18:

CIPS analog shows above normal rainfall probabilities for the area May 15-18:

Overall May 14-24 shows a strong likelihood of above normal rainfall here in an active storm track.

Beyond May 25-June 1 looks to dry out with main storm track shifting to the north as we heat up.

Tendency for below normal rainfall will be with us early to mid-June.

Late May to early June looks hotter than normal here with lots of severe weather in the High Plains.

Mid-June looks hotter than normal overall.  No doubt, we will have a cool-down with a Blackberry Winter.  It always happens, even in the hottest years.

June overall shows much hot ridge domination over the area with above normal temperatures.

This will be a dominating influence on our weather all summer.

It will bring potentially our first 100 to 100s since 2012 to the viewing area, frequent dry spells with drought, but may help to guide some complexes of storms in at times to relieve the heat & dryness.

It continues to look like a good set up for a Progressive Derecho to impact the area.

With double dip La Nina like 2010-12 & 1999-2001, cooler weather in the Northern Rockies & Northern Plains to Pacific Northwest & warm, dry ridging in the eastern & southeastern U.S. will be frequent.

We will average above normal temperature-wise in the Fall & below normal precipitation-wise, it appears.

This La Nina winter features more cold intrusions in December & January with above normal snowfall.

Even with La Nina beginning to wane by late winter, its influence will continue with likelihood of warm, upper ridging in the Southeast to Midwest in February with early start of spring warm surges.

We will monitor.

There is the drier summer regime with wet, stormy summer over the Great Lakes to Ontario & also over the Northern Plains & Canadian Prairies:

By late summer, dryness continues here, but note the corridor of wetter weather potentially to our northwest & west to north.

I do not expect us to really see a month of widespread above normal rainfall here until November.

That is what the data shows right now, but could change.  We will monitor.

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Beautiful Week Ahead. Cooler, drier and less humid.
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