Highs today reached 69-75 over the area after lows of 46-52 this morning.
75 3 E Attica...3 SE Covington...Purdue University Airport
73 Morocco...3 E Fowler
72 Kentland Muncipal Airport...Monticello-White County Airport...Frankfort Municipal Airport...2 NW Crawfordsville...5 W Delphi...Flora Municipal Airport
71 Kokomo Municipal Airport...Galveston Airport...6 NE Winamac...Remington
70 Rochester-Fulton County Airport...Logansport-Cass County Airport...Crawfordsville Municipal AIrport...Grissom Air Reserve Base...Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport
69 Peru Municipal Airport
Increasing clouds Monday will give way to a couple isolated showers/t'showers late in the day with highs 76-83 as warm front moves northward.
With partly cloudy skies, lows of 63-67 are likely Monday night.
It looks completely capped in the Plains Monday night with really no storm development perhaps until Tuesday late afternoon-evening. That development would tend to be in North Dakota to Minnesota.
Intense heat will overspread the area Tuesday with strong west-southwest winds. Highs of 90-94 are likely. Dew points do not look terrible in the 61-66 range. That will still make it feel more like 90-97he, however.
Note the highs as high as 103 in far southeastern South Dakota to far southern Minnesota to far northwestern & northern Iowa!
Tuesday night looks breezy to windy from the southwest & warm with lows in the 70s.
An ENHANCED RISK scenario is setting up from Minnesota to Michigan for Tuesday night-Wednesday morning. One or two bowing MCSs will track over that zone. These could become quite intense with some gusts exceeding 80 mph. We will see if it/they last long enough to reach derecho status.
One of two things will happen Wednesday:
1. Either the MCS(s) keep going & pass through our area with damaging wind risk a little earlier in the day as a continued long-lived wind event.
2. New storms form on their outflow boundaries & quickly grow upscale & congeal into a bowing squall line with a damaging wind event in the afternoon.
Either way, they will tend to make a bit of a turn in the area (it appears with the current data), moving from northwest to southeast, then north to south & eventually northeast to southwest (as they race out of the viewing area).
They will be riding the expanding periphery of the hot upper ridge.
Also, either way, the parameters suggest ENHANCED RISK for severe weather for the area.
If we get the storms a bit earlier, then highs of 85-89 are likely, if they are in the afternoon, then 89-94 is likely.
Dew points will pool into the 70-74 range ahead of the storms, leading to much more sticky conditions.
After the storms, lows should drop into the 60s to 70 Wednesday night.
On the tail end of the MCS, a few storms may pop & actually track back to the east through our area Thursday PM. They looks scattered. Given the instability (2500 ML CAPE) & steep lapse rate (7.5-9C low- & mid-level), isolated large hail &/or wind are possible with highs in the muggy upper 80s to lower 90s. Parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK for the area.
We will also watch what happens with a potential MCV in Iowa & the potential of that to produce another "Ridge Rider". Such a complex of storms (MCS) would tend to impact the area Friday with risk of damaging winds. However, confidence is low on this & there is much uncertainty on whether this will transpire. We will monitor. We look quite strongly capped, so that is a forecast complication. We will monitor.
We will also monitor the heat & heat right into next weekend with 90s & high humidity leading to heat indices +100.
The potential tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico bears very close watching as well.
We need to watch it closely for its impacts here with its track once it makes landfall.