May 31, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Precipitation Stats, Severe Weather Risk Saturday Then Brief Cool Snap

Posted: May 31, 2019 9:40 PM
Updated: May 31, 2019 11:29 PM

Rainfall stats:

Here at WLFI, we have seen measurable rainfall every day at some point since May 19! (12 days in a row!)

We have not seen a dry stretch exceed two days in the month of May.

We have not seen a dry stretch exceed three days at WLFI (Days with 0.00" on precipitation amount) since December 16-19, 2018!)

It is not that we have seen massive flooding with major heavy rains, but the precipitation has been very consistent with a cooler than normal March & April after a wet, snowy winter.

The only periods that have been suitable for any decent field work for parts of the area were two-day spurts in late March & then again late April & then again in early May.  Since some planting in early May, not a wheel has turned.

Since January 1, I have measured 22.30" of rainfall.  Normal January 1-May 31 for West Lafayette area is 14.72".  We are 7.88" above normal for 2019.

Other Greater Lafayette totals January 1-May 31:

23.51"  West Lafayette Sewage Plant

22.57"  Lafayette 2 S

21.38"  Lafayette 2.2 NE

19.67"  Otterbein 2.3 SE

19.42"  Purdue University Airport

19.28"  Purdue Ag Farm

Other totals in the area since January 1:

26.01"  Frankfort

25.03"  Kokomo 3 WSW

23.58"  Crawfordsville 6 SE

22.52"  Monticello

22.14"  Burlington

22.00"  Rensselaer 1.9 SSW

21.42"  Rensselaer

21.25"  Chalmers 5 W

21.12"  Peru

20.63"  Demotte 0.8 NNW

20.35"  Young America

20.28" Demotte 4.1 SW

20.24"  Brook 4.2 SW

19.90"  Flora

19.16"  Morocco 1 NW

19.13"  Denver 1.3 NE

18.95"  Lake Cicott

18.92"  Francesville

18.79"  Rochester

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Highs ranged from 75-82 over the viewing area today.

Thick smoke from Canadian forest fires turned the sky pale white, gray & bronze as upper flow was from northwest, though surface flow was from southwest.

Some cumulus clouds formed, mainly in the southern part of the viewing area.

Lows tonight will run 58-63 with smoky haze & some increasing high/mid clouds late.

Line of storms over Michigan & Wisconsin will gust out north of us late tonight.  All it will do is bring some high/mid clouds & then a increasingly-diffuse outflow boundary into the area with perhaps a line of elevated cumulus clouds/altocumulus castellanus clouds Saturday morning that will gradually dissipate.

A couple lines of storms will form northwest of the area & move southeastward tomorrow afternoon-evening.

One should form on the outflow boundary from the morning & the other should form just ahead of the cold front.

New data suggests some deviation of wind direction with some height, so a few embedded supercells in the line cannot be ruled out. 

Scattered damaging wind gusts are possible, but I added hail & isolated brief, weak tornado wording to account for the embedded supercell risk (due to that slightly-better directional shear in a largely uni-directionally, speed-sheared environment).

Blackberry Winter arrives Saturday night & lasts to Tuesday morning.  This is a typical period of weather in late May or early June corresponding with the last occurrence of temperatures well down into the 40s area-wide (with highs 60s to lower 70s).

Warm front will lift northward later Tuesday & we will be bathed in warm & humidity Wednesday.

A wave of showers & storms is possible Wednesday morning, followed by a break with sun & windy conditions Wednesday afternoon. 

Other storms are possible Wednesday evening with some severe risk.  Some severe risk could develop Thursday afternoon-evening.

Cooler weather will arrive Friday.  Potential tropical development will occur in the western Gulf with a depression, storm or just low pressure with heavy rainfall moving inland late next week.

It does not look to affect us right now.  Hopefully this will continue.  We would definitely not need rainfall from a tropical system.

Temperatures should warm back to the 80s with storms possible around June 10, followed by what could be an extended dry spell.

Period of wet, stormy weather with multiple rounds of severe weather risk & heavy rainfall could occur in late June to the start of July (June 27-July 1).

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Lafayette
Mostly Cloudy
27° wxIcon
Hi: 30° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 18°
Kokomo
Cloudy
26° wxIcon
Hi: 29° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 14°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
23° wxIcon
Hi: 28° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 16°
Lafayette
Cloudy
25° wxIcon
Hi: 28° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: °
Danville
Mostly Cloudy
28° wxIcon
Hi: 29° Lo: 26°
Feels Like: 28°
Frankfort
Cloudy
27° wxIcon
Hi: 30° Lo: 26°
Feels Like: 16°
Frankfort
Cloudy
27° wxIcon
Hi: 28° Lo: 26°
Feels Like: 16°
Monticello
Cloudy
22° wxIcon
Hi: 28° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 16°
Monticello
Mostly Cloudy
22° wxIcon
Hi: 27° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 16°
Logansport
Cloudy
25° wxIcon
Hi: 28° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 25°
Some snow Wednesday to Wednesday night.....
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