May 31, 2:15 PM: Wildfire Smoke & Severe Risk....& Blackberry Winter

In smoky haze from wildfires, it is a dry Friday, but storms with severe risk return Saturday followed by burst of Blackberry Winter.

Posted: May 31, 2019 2:02 PM
Updated: May 31, 2019 2:29 PM

Note the smokey has dimming the sun today & turning the sky a drab white/gray without any cumulus clouds.

This is thick wild fire smoke being pulled southeastward by that upper low that brought our storms yesterday & lastnight.

It is so thick that I think that it has been a detriment to cumulus cloud formation today.

Talk about a North America of extremes!

Massive floods are in the Plains & into the Midwest, while the Southeast is burning now with wildfire smoke as temperatures soar to record levels of 100-105.

Meanwhile, western Canada to parts of Minnesota is dry & hot. 

Milky smoke shows up on visible satellite.

45

Note all of the wildfires burning.

I don't expect anything more than a gust front or outflow boundary from that bow of sotrms along the warm front in Wisconsin to northeastern Illinois.

That boundary will slide southward with a band of elevated cumulus with wind shift to north-northeast Saturday morning.

It will grow diffuse & cumulus will diminish & wind will go back to the southwest by 9 a.m. with any debri high/mid clouds from the storms diminishing, as well.

After sunshine & temperatures rising to 82-86 with dew points in the 60s, multiple lines of storms with severe weather risk should blow up & race through in the afternoon to evening hours.

Main threat is damaging wind.

SPC did upgrade entire viewing area to SLIGHT RISK.

Then, Blackberry Winter arrives.  It is usually our last occurrence of mid 40s until September.  This cool spell corresponds with peak of Blackberry blooming.  It follows Black Locust Winter in May that occurs when those trees are blooming, when we see our last upper 30s to lower 40s.

This will occur Sunday-Monday with highs 67-74 with lows 43-48.

We then warm up again & 80s return Wednesday-Thursday with high humidity next week.

What is very interesting is the feature coming out of the western Gulf of Mexico.  It has the potential to be an early season Tropical Depression or storm.  We shall see.  This will depend on whether it hangs out over Mexico or is completely over the Gulf of Mexico that will determine how organized it gets.

Regardless, it should bring drought & fire-busting rainfall to a chunk of the southeast U.S.

In our area, looks like cooler, drier weather should follow our mid to late week rainfall.

The pattern that has supported day after day after day of violent weather in the Plains & parts of the Midwest & even into the Mid-Atlantic, will end.  The extent & violence of severe early to mid June looks nothing like mid to late May.

For us, the period for us to watch is end of June to first of July for front ot stall in the area & multiple squall lines to pass with wind threat.

From June 12-25, that is our best potential of widespread drying in the area for attempts at substantial planting, albeit extremely late.

Since April, it has been a patchwork of planting to no planting at all with it being based on soil type, topography & localized nature of the heaviest rainfalls in an overall wetter pattern (in an already typically wetter time of year).

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