May 29, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Nice, comfortable weekend, then hot/humid with risk of severe storms with potential of early-season all-out heat wave.

Posted: May 29, 2020 9:22 PM
Updated: May 29, 2020 10:59 PM

Highs today reached 75-81, exceeding initial expectations a bit of a 73-79 day.  The humidity dropped nicely on brisk west-northwest to northwest winds at 15-28 mph.

Partly cloudy skies Saturday will give way to mostly sunny skies Sunday.

I went for lows of 44-50 Saturday night & 45-50 (coolest north & northeast) Sunday night with daily highs 69-76.

Warm front will surge northeastward & bring increasing clouds & highs 76-83 with a turn of the wind to the south.

It will begin to turn more humid.

A couple/few isolated storms are possible late Monday night-Tuesday morning.  The bulk of the showers & storms will tend to occur northeast of the area, however.

It will turn muggy Tuesday night & Wednesday looks hot & muggy with highs 90-94 with strong south-southwest winds to 33 mph.

Heat indices of 96-103 are likely.

A complex of storms (MCS) with a bowing squall line will likely originate as shortwave rides the upper ridge. 

Conditions are favorable for a long-lived, widespread damaging wind event to evolve (especially given the potent elevated mixed layer or EML that will help MCS bow/line amalgamation with favorable shear, deep instability for longevity).

Storms should initiate in North & South Dakota Tuesday night & ride through Minnesota, Wisconsin, northeastern Iowa to Illinois & far southwest Michigan to our area by evening (7-10 p.m.)

Complex should reach Tennessee & western Kentucky to southeast Missouri by morning & weaken.

We will see if it does reach progressive derecho (type of derecho that occurs on periphery of hot upper ridge) status.  It could.

Parameters suggest higher-end ENHANCED RISK for our area right now.  We will monitor future data as some parameters may even conclude MODERATE RISK parameters setting up.

On the tail-end of that MCS, some storms may form with a north- to south-orientation from western Tennessee to central Illinois & then move back northeastward in strong low-level flow from the southwest.

This will occur as ridge expands greatly & pushes the MCS/derecho corridor way northward to the Dakotas to Ontario for Thursday night-Friday through Sunday.

An early-season heat wave will engulf the area with temperatures in the 90s for many days.

Given the strong southwest winds, night-time lows will be unusually warm in the 74-80 range.  Highs may peak at 93-98 with heat indices to 99-108.

Meanwhile, the West will be unusually cold & wet, while multiple severe weather outbreaks will occur from Wyoming & Montana to Ontario.

Severe weather is possible over the region June 13-14 time frame with potential SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK as strong cold front passes.

A period of much more comfortable weather is possible (highs 70s to lower 80s with lows 50s to 60).

However, hot upper ridge should re-build into the Plains & Midwest by around June 19 with severe weather risk Montana to Minnesota to Ontario. 

We may see another "Ridge Rider" with severe weather risk.

Temperatures will heat up with highs of 94-98 potentially with heat indices of 100-110.

Overnight lows of 75-80 are possible.

A FORECAST WILDCARD is the Gulf, Caribbean & Atlantic, where early tropical development will continue.  MJO is in a very favorable phase for active tropics, along with unusually warm sea surfaces (& with us beginnings of a La Nina underway, which favors more tropical development). 

We will likely make it to the "C" category for names before June 5, which would break the record (set in 1966 [June 5]) for earliest reach to the letter "C" in tropical storms & hurricanes back to 1851.

We may very well see a couple of tropical storms &/or hurricanes make landfall along the Gulf Coast over the next 1-2.5 weeks.

We will wait & see what or if there are substantial impacts from these systems.

Lafayette
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Rensselaer
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Lafayette
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Danville
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Frankfort
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Some More Frost & Light Freezing Ahead......
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