May 29, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Showers/storms....some severe risk.

Posted: May 29, 2019 10:01 PM
Updated: May 29, 2019 10:38 PM

Lots of showers/storms southwest & south of us.  They have been delayed here because so many storms & so much heavy rainfall has occurred south of us to an extent to form a cold pool.

Cold pool forms with a lot of heavy rainfall & a pool of this rain-cooled air caused storms to form a line & drop south & southeastward, rather than move northeastward.

However, other showers & storms are moving northeastward now out of Illinois & approaching. 

A line with a history of some sporadic wind damage is moving northeastward toward our area.

There is still the risk of an isolated severe storm or two embedded in the rainfall & storms as they pass (wind).  The risk would be up to 2 a.m., then diminish.

Lows will run in the 60s.

Rain & isolated storms will follow, then end Thursday morning.  Some peeks of sun with the building clouds will follow.

Upper low will pivot southeastward from Iowa in the morning & pivot through in the afternoon. 

With the cold pocket aloft with it & the vorticity & the moist environment with low cloud bases (LCLs), the risk of a couple rope funnels or brief rope tornadoes are possible.  Isolated small hailer or two is possible.

This will occur as scattered showers & storms bubble up underneath that upper low (with highs in the 70s) in the 3-8 p.m. time frame. 

These will diminish tomorrow night, skies should clear & some patchy fog develop (with lows in the 50s).

Sunshine & clouds will be with us Friday with highs 77-84 with lows in the 60s Friday night.

Saturday looks warm & humid with highs 81-85 with lows Saturday night at 65-68, but showers & storms return Saturday night to Sunday AM. 

The best severe weather risk later Saturday, Saturday night to Sunday morning will be southwest & west of our area from western Illinois to Kansas & Oklahoma.  SLIGHT RISK parameters are showing up with ENHANCED RISK in Kansas, southwestern Missouri & northeastern Oklahoma.  We may end up with MARGINAL RISK for the area.

Sunday should then dry out with some sun & highs in the 70s & lows 50-55 Sunday night.

Monday & Tuesday look good with 75-80 & 82-86, respectively.

Some storms are possible late Wednesday with highs 83-87.

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