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May 28, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

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Posted: May 28, 2020 8:50 PM
Updated: May 29, 2020 5:35 PM

Note the near/record heat for days over the Great Lakes, eastern Canada & New England & the cool weather record in Texas & the West.  However, note the shift to heat records to the West over the past couple of days.  That ridge is the one that may bring us an early-season heat wave next week & beyond.

Highs today reached 79-85 with still humid to muggy dew points in the 60s to lower 70s after morning lows of 65-71.

Some scattered showers/storms are possible tonight, followed by scattered showers & t'showers Friday morning through midday.

After a very small break, a line of low-topped showers/t'showers is possible along the cold front in the early afternoon.

Decreasing clouds should follow with highs 73-77 with northwest winds increasing to 15-25 mph

Lows tomorrow night (with partly cloudy skies) should drop to 48-55.

The weekend looks good with low humidity & highs 70-75 with lows 47-54.  Saturday looks partly cloudy.  Sunday will feature partly cloudy skies, followed by mostly sunny to sunny skies.

Wind will be from the north at 10-20 mph Saturday & 10-15 mph from the northeast Sunday.  Those winds should decrease to 5-10 mph Sunday afternoon & cumulus clouds should be scoured out of the area in the afternoon after developing pretty quickly.

Clouds should increase Monday with approaching warm front & highs 74-79.  Wind should shift from southeast to south at 5-15 mph.

A few isolated storms are possible Tuesday with wind shift to the southwest at 10-20 mph & highs 82-88 (with increase in the humidity).

Wednesday looks hot & humid with highs 88-92 with strong south-southwest winds 15-30 mph & heat indices of 91-98.

We will watch a "Ridge Rider" complex of storms or an MCS develop on the periphery of the hot upper ridge expanding in.

This will tend to track from Minnesota to Wisconsin to Michigan, Ohio & Pennsylvania to West Virginia, then Virginia & Maryland.

Damaging winds are possible with it.

Here, track is a bit uncertain, but potential is there for it to side-swipe our area with severe risk.  It could also come right through the entire area, depending on the track the the position of the edge of the upper ridge.  It would tend to affect our area Wednesday evening.

A severe MCS with damaging winds may impact part or much of the area Thursday evening as it pops in Minnesota & Iowa & races east, then southeastward all the wasy to D.C., Virginia, Delaware & New Jersey by Friday morning.

If it gets the right set up & becomes a widespread wind producer for that entire route, it would be classified as a derecho.  Too early to determine if that happens, but conditions are good for a long-lived MCS to ride the edge of the heat.

Highs here should run 89-93 with heat indices 94-100.

Meanwhile (after tropical storm Arthur & Bertha in May), a hurricane may be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico.  U.S. landfall could occur near June 10, but track is in question.  The upper ridge could pull it toward Texas or it could track more towards Florida.  It depends on the position of the ridge.

Ridge should expand way north after this & any severe risk shift way to the north & northwest of our area.

The Friday, June 5 to Sunday, June 7 period looks hot!  Highs of 92-97 are possible with  heat indices of 98-106.

Right now it looks dry & mostly sunny to partly cloudy with southwest winds 10-20 mph.  Overnight lows may only run 71-76.

Temperatures at 1 p.m. Friday (June 5) are projected at 90-93 with heat indices at that time 96-102.

Note the very warm temperatures Saturday morning (June 6) at 7 a.m.!  They are projected at 78-82 with muggy dew points of 74-77!

Saturday, June 6 projected temperatures are 91-95 for 1 p.m.:

Widespread heat continues through all of next weekend.

There will multiple severe weather outbreaks Wyoming to Minnesota to Manitoba and Ontario.

All areas east of the Rockies (except New England) will see above normal temperatures, but unusually cool weather will dominate west of the Continental Divide:

A ridge rider may bring MCS with severe risk June 8-9 with potential big severe weather outbreak June 9-11 Wyoming to Minnesota to Manitoba to Ontario.

We still look hot and muggy with 90s here.

June 13-14 looks to feature a heat-breaking cold front with severe weather risk.  We should turn cooler and less humid behind the front for a bit.

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Crawfordsville
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Nice, Fall-Like Weekend!
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