ENHANCED RISK of severe all of area EXCEPT southern Warren, all of Fountain, Montgomery. They are in SLIGHT RISK.
Potential is there for a band of MODERATE RISK just west of us in northern Illinois in the next update.
Isolated storms 1-4 p.m. as warm front moves through.
Isolated supercell storm is possible with severe risk (large hail, brief tornado)
Numerous supercell storms possible in the 5-10 p.m. time frame near & along the warm front, largely along & north of Route 18. There may be very little to nothing in the south.
Latest sounding data suggests that shear & wind fields promote supercellular & discrete nature, through they may tend to evolve into a supercell cluster.
Large hail, a few tornadoes & wind are all possible, along with risk of locally-heavy rainfall.
A couple to few showers/storms are possible on the tail end of all this after midnight to as late as 5 a.m., but coverage will only run 25-30% & severe risk will be low.
This outflow boundary from all of the supercells, combined with an old MCV from previous storms in Iowa, does look to pop a line of storms in the 1-6 p.m. time frame Tuesday with severe weather risk (wind).
The new data shows less likelihood of capping due to strength of MCV.
If capping happens to strengthen due less potential of stronger MCV, then storms may struggle.
We will monitor.
A couple rounds of storms are possible Tuesday night-Wednesday morning 12 a.m. to 9 a.m.
The first one will tend to gust out over our area as our airmass may be convectively overturned by afternoon storms. However, some severe gusts could make it to Newton & Jasper counties & gust front with 35-50 mph gusts should pass through the viewing area, surging out well ahead of the decaying line of storms.
The second line should gust out west of here & be just a band of rain & perhaps a storm or two in the southwest. It will encounter cooled airmass from previous line's gust front & rain. Severe weather with this second round will stay southwest of our viewing area.
After a break with thinning clouds for sunshine Wednesday afternoon & evening, a new line of storms should fire along the cold front west of us late Wednesday afternoon-early evening.
This will likely pass through our area in the 8 p.m.-12 a.m. time frame with isolated severe risk (wind).
Thursday should calm down with just a trough of lots of cold air-aloft cumulus clouds & a few isolated showers possible, followed by a dry, mostly sunny Friday. Highs will run in the 70s to 80 with lows in the 50s.
Total rainfall now to Wednesday should run 0.70-2.25" with isolated +2.25" amounts north.
Lightest totals will tend to be in the south with heaviest totals in the north & northeast.
- May 27, Severe Weather Update
- May 27, 4 PM Severe Weather Update
- August 27, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 27, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update
- January 27, 9 PM Weather Forecast Update
- April 27, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update
- May 19 Severe Weather Updates
- June 23 Severe Weather Updates
- September 27, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update: Very Interesting Forecast
- December 27, 12:15 PM Weather Forecast Update