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May 26, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest Memorial Day & beyond weather forecast update.

Posted: May 26, 2019 4:53 PM
Updated: May 26, 2019 6:28 PM

Few isolated showers & storms are possible Memorial day along & just north of the warm front in the 12 p.m.-3 p.m. time frame southwest to northeast over the area.

It will get immediately warm to very warm & muggy once that warm front passes with wind shift to the south, then southwest.

Then, it appears that a bow of storms may develop with risk of some damaging winds.  This would ride down the warm front into the the viewing area in the 4-8 p.m. time frame. 

An isolated tornado risk may exist in the bow as it intersects the warm front near its comma head.

This may force the warm front southward some, but as it moves right back northward tomorrow night (the warm front completely merged with the outflow boundary [leading edge of the rain-cooled t'storm air]), a few storms may develop on the far tail end of the east- & southeastward-advancing bow.

These would occur 10 p.m.-2 a.m. with isolated large hailer possible.


To summarize for Memorial Day & into the night for the viewing area:

1.  Isolated showers/storms 12 p.m.-3 p.m.

2.  Bow of storms possible with severe risk (wind, isolated tornado where bow intersects warm front) 4-8 p.m.

3.  Few storms on tail end of bow 10 p.m.-2 a.m. (isolated large hailer).

Tuesday looks breezy, warm & muggy with sun/clouds & highs 83-89 with heat indices 88-95.

I went for dry Tuesday, but put storms back in Tuesday night.  There is some data suggesting outflow boundary coming into part of area Tuesday popping a few storms.  I am siding more with a cap & the outflow boundary remaining inactive with it setting up in the north.

Couple rounds of storms are possible Tuesday night-Wednesday.  Some severe weather is possible (wind).

Now-Wednesday, 0.75-2.50" of rainfall is expected over the viewing area.

After some patchy field work & planting on better-drained ground early last week, it is coming to a complete 100% stand still again.

We dry out Thursday, other than a few isolated showers from some cold air aloft coming in & building cumulus towers.

Friday & Saturday also look dry, but warm front will surge back northward, bathing us in warmth & high humidity again Saturday p.m.-Sunday.

Storms return with severe weather risk next Sunday.

Two periods are shaping up for widespread showers/storms:  June 2 & around June 10.  Lesser coverage with a few showers/storms June 5.


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