May 24, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some storms with off & on severe risk & warm, muggy weather ahead.

Posted: May 24, 2019 12:10 PM
Updated: May 24, 2019 9:33 PM

We had a few storms north of the warm front this evening.  Those have pushed out.  The highest rainfall total I could find was 0.35" at Galveston.

Temperatures vary from 64 to 83 over the viewing area right now from northeast to southwest as warm front lifts northward. 

It is 70 at West Lafayette, 67 at Monticello, but 80 at I-74 & US 231 at Crawfordsville!  Ladoga has 83, but it is 75 at 2 SSW Linden & 73 1 NE Romney.  Temperatures are surging into the mid to upper 80s with heat indices of 92-95 southwest of Covington.

The warm front line shows up very well on visible satellite imagery!

I notice here at West Lafayette, the northeast to east wind is now turning to the east-southeast as the actual warm front approaches.

This progress of the warm front northward will continue through the day with increasing from southwest to northeast.

Note the heat advancing rapidly northward through the day, along with the high humidity with south-southwest winds.

A few storms are possible early evening to midnight in the area along & just south of the warm front.

Main corridor (better coverage) is our northwestern areas, but a few supercell-type storms could easily fire farther southward all the way to Greater Lafayette, Frankfort, etc.

Severe risk is possible with any storm in the viewing area with wind, large hail, isolated tornado risk all on the table.

Just be weather aware for the evening up to midnight.

Along & north of an Attica to Lafayette to Peru line has been upgraded to SLIGHT RISK of severe weather with MARGINAL RISK elsewhere.

The rest of the night looks dry as storms line up west, northwest & north of our viewing area.

It will be a warm, muggy night here with south-southwest winds & lows only 68-72.

Where some storms fire tomorrow will be determined by where the outflow boundary (leading edge of the rain-cooled air from storms) from the storms west, northwest & north of us sets up.

These will be fast-movers, but any storms that fire along the boundary may go severe.

Whether that boundary initially sets up near or just north of Route 18 or a bit northward or more like Pine Village to Lafayette to Peru or Kokomo remains to be seen.

We will monitor closely.

Otherwise, looks like a mostly cloudy day early, turning partly cloudy with highs 82 north of the outflow boundary to 88 south of it.  The humidity will be rather high area-wide, which will lead to heat indices of 85-93.

Storm Prediction Center has MARGINAL RISK of severe for much of the area with SLIGHT RISK along & east of a Winamac to Burlington to Tipton line & eastward.

At this point, it still appears that a wave of rain & storms will pass Saturday night-Sunday morning (isolated severe storm or two possible), followed by some just showery & cloudy weather right up to 2 p.m. Sunday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to 70s during that time.

Actual cold front should reach the Pine Village to Lafayette to Rochester corridor by 2 p.m.  It should clear the area by 4 p.m.

There may still be lingering clouds & a just a few showers behind the front with northwest winds & temperatures in the 70 to 70s range.

That all said, outflow boundary from our rain & storms & southeastward-progressing cold front will cause a new line of storms to pop south of our area Sunday afternoon with severe weather risk.

You can see it blow up in the Indianapolis metro in the 1:30-3 p.m. time frame.

So for the Indy 500, our morning storms may gust out over that metro 8-10 a.m., followed by a break, then re-firing of new storms early afternoon.

Very close call.  Potential is there for early end to the race or if the storms fire sooner or if our storms last a little longer & completely make it into that area, race could be delayed.  That, with new storms could cause race to be moved to Monday.

A lot of moving parts are with these outflow boundaries that really get to the heart of very localized meso-scale meteorology.  Exact position within a few miles is hard more than 12 hours out.

Largely dry, windy, very warm to hot, humid weather dominates Monday-Tuesday with sun/clouds.  Highs will run in the 80s to 90 with lows 60 to lower 70s with heat indices on Tuesday peaking at 90-96.

Squall line of storms is possible Wednesday with severe weather risk, followed by cooler, less humid weather Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 70s & lows in the 50s.

It will heat up again after that & round or two of storms is possible around June 2, then another around June 10 (with dry time in-between).

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Mild Finish To The Weekend
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