May 23, 1:30 AM Weather Update

Tornado Watch up until 6 a.m. for part of the viewing area.

Posted: May 23, 2019 1:11 AM
Updated: May 23, 2019 9:53 PM

Tornado Watches is up for Benton, Newton & Jasper counties until 6 a.m. Eastern.

Numerous counties are under Severe T'Storm Warnings over Missouri & Ilinois (in blue).

Tornado Warnings are in east-central Missouri.

We are watching the supercells around Peoria & the bow west of Springfield, Illinois to St. Louis.

Thinking supercells near Peoria will eventually gell with northward expanding bow as it races toward our area.

Damaging straight-line winds will be main threat, though any LEWP or S shape in the line or could warrant meso circulations for a brief tornado or two.  Any node of higher reflectivity embedded in the line may produced some hail in additional to isolated tornado risk.

SLIGHT RISK of severe weather continues for the entire viewing area with temperatures 69-73 until they cool to 63-66 with the rain.

Be weather aware into the overnight hours for any Tornado Warnings or Severe T'storm Warnings issued.

Projected 3-7 a.m.:

After this, clouds should decrease & highs should reach 78-85 with southwest to west-southwest winds 20-35 mph. 

Dew points will run in the humid 65-69 range much of the day, though they may drop to 60-64 in the north later in the day.

Note a few cells Friday morning with isolated severe risk.  Timing is early to mid morning.  This is the warm front trying to go back south, then going back north.

North of the front, lows Thursday night may drop to 54-58, while south of it they will stay in the 60s.  We may drop to 61 at Greater Lafayette.

Friday afternoon looks dry, breezy, very warm & humid (sun & clouds) with highs 80-89 (northeast to southwest) with southeast to south winds 15-25 mph.

Friday night looks warm & humid area-wide with lows 67-71.

Note the rounds of severe storms with flooding west & northwest of our area Friday night to Saturday morning.  They will weaken northwest of us Saturday morning as low-level jet veers.

However, note how they put out outflow boundary discernible from Rensselaer to Earl Park.

This will likely serve as focus for some scattered storm development Saturday p.m. in the area. 

They will tend to pop on that boundary & move east & northeastward with around 30-35% coverage.

With sun/clouds, highs will run 83-88 with humid, breezy conditions.

Some showers/storms are possible Sunday.  However, new analysis suggests most-widespread rainfall will occur south of the viewing area.  We will monitor.  I still went for 50% coverage.

Then, Monday & Tuesday looks dry, windy & very warm to hot & humid with sun/clouds.  Highs should run in the 80s to near 90 with lows in the 60s to near 70.

Line of storms with severe weather risk is possible Wednesday.

Thursday & Friday looks cooler & less humid with 70s & lows around 50 to the 50s before it heats up again next weekend.   Looks dry at the moment for next weekend & that Monday.

We will monitor.

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Mild with Rain by Sunday Night
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