May 23, 11:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Hot Sunday ahead.....

Posted: May 23, 2020 11:03 PM
Updated: May 24, 2020 12:18 AM

Severe weather occurred northwest, north & southeast of our area this afternoon-evening.

14 tornadoes reports were received northwest of the viewing area.

Only report recieved was of pea hail at Kentland with torrential rainfall for a brief time that resulted in flash flooding.

Highs today reached 78-85.  Lows tonight will run in the 60s to near 70.

Sunday looks like the hottest day of the year so far with highs 86-90 with heat indices 90-96.

Only an isolated storm is possible with partly cloudy skies & south-southwest winds 15-25 mph.

Sunday night lows will only drop to 69-73.

A weakening MCV moing through area Memorial Day may bring scattered storms.

A couple of severe storms are possible.

Highs of 84-90 are expected with heat indices of 90-96.

Scattered storms are possible at times Tuesday-Saturday of next week.

Severe risk looks low & would be isolated if it occurs.  We will monitor for changes.

Daily highs will run in the muggy 80s to near 90 with lows in the upper 60s to around 71.

There are signs that a bit cooler & less humid air may comes in late next weekend with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 with lows in the 50s.

Note temperatures Monday, June 1 in the 71-77 range with northeast wind (with lower humidity) as 1 p.m., rather than 83-86 with high humidity.

However, that does not look to last long.

We should heat up & turn muggy again not long after that.

Looks like hot ridging & a strong southwest low-level flow into the area with severe weather outbreaks blowing up from Ontario, Manitoba, North Dakota & Minnesota to Nebraska.

We may get some storms in here around June 4-5 with MARGINAL to SLIGHT parameters showing up at the moment in the area.  This, as surface cold front sweeps through.  The better dynamnics will be north of our area, but it does look unstable with an uptick in mid- & upper-level wind fields for a semi-organized line.  We will see.  It is still a ways out, but that is what I can tell you based on all of the data in front of me.

A cool-down to a few very comfortable 70s days are possible after that with crisp, cooler nights.

Overall, much of June averages out to look like this (temperature anomalies):

Overall, much of June averages out to look like this (rainfall anomalies):

Intense heat shows up with upper ridge in the last few days of June to early July.

Widespread 90s are likely with heat indices +105.

Impulses in Northwest U.S. trough diving into the Northern Plains may serve as focus for severe weather Dakotas to Minnesota & Iowa.  These storm complexes in the "Ring of Fire" would tend to ride the periphery of that ridge.  It is a good set up for us to get a squall line or even derecho.  The Northeast U.S. would also be in line for this.

Projected upper pattern shows this:

Meanwhile, at the lower levels & surface, Bermuda high will pump the tropical air northward, which will help with the high, sultry dew points.

July overall trends warmer than normal:

It continues to trend drier than normal:

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