Highs today ran 76-87. Disregard the big pink spot on the map. The Logansport-Cass County Airport temperature sensor has been having some issues off & on. At 1:37 a.m. it spit out an erroneous reading of 138 with a dew point of 133. This shows up in the highs today as an extreme spot on the contour map!
Heat indices today reached as high as 96 in our southwestern areas. At 5:30 p.m., the temperature on the Covington sensor was 86.8 with a dew point of 75, giving a heat index of 96! Frankfort hit a heat index of 93. Just southwest of our area at the Edgar County Airport, the heat index peaked at 97.
The heat index at WLFI peaked at 91, while the Purdue Airport saw a peak heat index of 88. Both places reached 85 for highs today.
The cap is winning out. The warm, dry layer from the southeastern record-heat ridge has put the lid on any storm development.
Even the supercells within the Illinois tornado watch seem to pulse & produce brief severe weather, then collapse.
I noticed on visible satellite & just looking northwest from West Lafayette this evening cumulus congestus towers going up toward Rensselaer. Then, they disappeared, though the tops of some of those cells that have popped in Illinois could be seen at sunset.
With the cap remaining & not eroding here, the latest data has it completely dry now for the rest of the evening & into the night for our northwest.
In fact, most high-res, shorter-range convective models show even the central Illinois storms stuggling with the cap.
However, parameters are more than good for supercells, especially in our northwestern areas. Warm front zone nearby our northwest would be a trigger & upper jet streak is helping storms to go well west of here, but cap is the big detriment.
SPC has us in SLIGHT RISK & even ENHANCED RISK in our northwest, but I just don't see how we can break the cap to really get severe weather.
Supercell Composite Parameter is impressive in our northwest.
Significant Tornado Parameter is quite elevated in our northern & northwestern areas.
Large Hail Parameter is quite elevated in the northwest, as well.
Microburst Composite numbers are high mainly in Illinois, but elevated in far southwest Newton & northwestern Benton counties.
Outflow boundary from storms over northern Illinois & Michigan will surge southeastward late tonight & early Saturday morning. It will grow more diffuse, but move southward into our area Saturday afternooon. A remnant MCV over Michigan to northwestern Ohio may help to break our capping some & get a few storms to pop on that boundary & move southeastward.
Coverage should run 30-35% Saturday afternoon to evening here. Any storm that develops & really intensifies could go severe.
Highs will run 82-89 with heat indices 86-96 north to south.
Main time frame for storms (with severe risk)& more widespread rainfall is Saturday night-Sunday morning as round or two or rain/storms comes through. The risk of some damaging wind gusts is possible as the round or two organize into a bit of a line.
After that, Sunday morning, showers are possible through early afternoon before ending with highs 75-78.
Our rainfall totals Saturday to Sunday night should run 0.60-1.30" overall for the viewing area.
It appears that on the tail end of the round(s), new storms may fire along I-70 & right into the Indianapolis area in the afternoon with severe weather risk.
So, some rainfall/storms may flirt with Indy through the morning & midday, but there will likely be a break for a bit, then new development of storms occurs.
On Monday, front will migrate back northward as a warm front, bringing an isolate storm or two on an otherwise dry, partly cloudy day. Highs should run 79-88 from northeast to southwest over the area & around 83 at Greater Lafayette.
Tuesday still looks completely dry, windy, very warm to hot & humid with partly cloudy skies & highs 86-90.
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