Patchy fog (visibility to 0.15 mile at some airport sites) occurred with lows 50-60 this morning. Much of the area was 55-58.
Coolest observations site was the Crawfordsville Municipal Airport at 50. This is normally a cooler spot due to site where sensor & airport is located in a pocket of a low, flat valley of several creeks sloping toward Sugar Creek, Shades State Park, Pine Hills to Cold Spring Camp.
With cumulus/stratocumulus clouds mixed with sun today, highs of 71-79 are likely. As of 1 p.m., temperatures are 65-74 over the area. They are warmest where more consistent sun is occurring.
An isolated shower or two may bubble up with these cumulus clouds today. Lingering vorticity from nearby upper low may result in an isolated cold air funnel.
My high here at the WLFI ob site has been 72. It is 71 right now.
MCV pivoting through Missouri to northern Illinois will bring some storms Saturday (AM 35%.....Evening 65%).
A few showers & storms are possible briefly Saturday morning. An isolated sub-severe hailer is possible.
A break will follow & it will get very warm to hot & humid with sunshine.
SLIGHT RISK for severe storms scenario is shaping for evening in the 6 p.m. to 12 a.m. time frame.
A broken line or two of storms is likely with main risk being wind.
In central to east-central Illinois there is actually a period of pretty high tornado risk in the afternoon with the MCV. We will continue to monitor that & make sure that does not make movement eastward into our area.
Highs of 84-88 (heat indices 88-95) are likely after 60s tonight & mid 60s to 70 tomorrow night.
Winds will run south-southeast to south at 10-25 mph.
Most of Sunday looks dry, very warm to hot & humid whilte line of storms with severe weather threat will be moving through Iowa & Missouri Sunday evening. I kept 25% POPs for Sunday to account for a random shower/storm in the heat & humidity with diffuse outflow boundary on tail end of MCVs storms from Saturday moving northward over the area.
Looks partly cloudy here with 85-90 & heat indices 90-96.
Winds will run south-southwest at 10-25 mph.
Temperatures at 1 p.m. (already 84-87):
Heat indices are projected at 89-93 at 1 p.m. Sunday over the viewing area:
Projected radar Sunday noon to 7 p.m.:
A weakening MCV will pivot through Monday afternoon-evening with potential of storms.
If enhanced shear & lift can be realized with this MCV then a couple/few severe storms with MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK issued for the area may occur.
It will be a very warm to hot & humid day with highs 85-90 & heat indices 90-96.
Winds should run south-southwest at 10-20 mph.
It should stay very warm to hot & muggy Tuesday to Friday of next week. It will be a typical summer pattern with southerly winds & a few storms daily here & there. Any severe risk currently looks low given the fact that the better wind fields & dynamics will be well northwest of our area.
Highs of 85-90 are likely daily with lows 67-72. Daily heat indices should run 91-96.
Cold front should pass through a week from this Saturday bringing a cooler, less humid air in later next weekend. Highs a week from this Sunday may cool to the 70s with lows in the 50-55 range.
However, the heat & humidity will return quickly after that with 87-91 for highs & heat indices 92-97.