May 22, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

New data is in....Here is the latest.

Posted: May 22, 2020 9:51 PM
Updated: May 22, 2020 10:49 PM

I have heard from multiple growers that they have lost 30-50% of their fruit crop from the May freeze.  Also, peaches were lost due to shot of brutal cold with lows to -20 in February.  It occurred on a clear, calm night with snow pack.

The damage is becoming more apparent now as warmth advances trees & areas that aren't producing juvenile fruit or foliage show up.

The American Sycamores, Northern Catalpas, Black Locusts & Black Walnuts to some Tuliptrees are still in recovery mode as sprouts of green foliage appears amidst dry, blackened foliage from the freeze.  I have even noticed Eastern Redbud damage not only from the May freeze, but from a hard freeze back in April when they were blooming.  I went to collect seed from a Rock or Hickory Elm (one of the lesser common native elms as American & Slippery Elms are more common & known) a couple of days ago & the freezes cut the seed by an estimated 70%.  Leaves had some damage coinciding with the May freeze.  Then, you have some trees with considerable dead twigs due to it getting way too cold, too fast in early to mid November.  Those twigs were frozen & killed.

My American Sycamore seedlings I were growing were about 7-11" tall & killed to the ground by the November record cold (foliage still green to green-yellow at the time).  They were sprouting from the bases & then burned off by the cold a few weeks back.  I just checked & there are some new buds at the base again, but that make two times being just burnt off or top-killed.

It has been a rather tough year for trees.

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Highs today reached 70-77 over the viewing area.

MCV will pivot through Iowa & northern Illinois to southern Michigan before diminishing tonight through tomorrow to tomorrow night.

With this feature, an isolated shower/storm is possible Saturday morning, followed by a break with partly cloudy skies, very warm, hot & humid weather & southerly winds.  Highs of 84-88 are likely with heat indices 90-95.

Periodic splitting supercell clusters of storms will develop & impact the area in the 4 p.m. to 12 a.m. time frame Saturday.

Scattered severe storms are possible with wind, tornado or two & large hail risk. 

However, the best tornado risk runs from Chicago to Pontiac, Bloomington & Peoria, Illinois.  This higher risk of tornadoes in that area of Illinois will tend to run in the 5-8 p.m. time frame.

We have the risk of a tornado or two, but we will need to closely monitor that area of enhanced tornado risk in east-central to northeastern Illinois.

Upgrade to SLIGHT RISK is likely for the area with possibility of an area of ENHANCED RISK painted for part of the area from northeastern/east-central Illinois.

A couple isolated storms are possible Sunday on the tail end of outflow boundary from MCV-induced storms the night before.  Any storm that develops poses an isolated severe risk, but storm coverage will only run at 25%.  Otherwise expected partly cloudy skies & highs 86-90 with heat indices 90-96.

The big flare-up for severe storms Iowa to Kansas will play a role in the Memorial Day weather.

Scattered storms are possible Tuesday-Saturday of next week with very warm to hot, humid weather.

Severe risk looks low during that period with storms more of the typical garden-variety pulsey multi-cells.  You can't rule out an isolated severe storm with these as they pulse up, belch out their severe gust & hail, then collapse.  You also always watch interactions of outflow boundaries with these storms for random, out-of-nowhere tornado warning.

However, we will watch MCVs from the Plains to see if they get in here & increase the risk for severe.

Next Saturday evening through Sunday look dry & cooler with lows in the 50s & highs in the 70s to 80.

Heat & humidity should return shortly thereafter, however.  Storms with severe risk will also return.

West Lafayette
Clear
61° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 61°
Kokomo
Clear
57° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 57°
Rensselaer
Clear
55° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 50°
Feels Like: 55°
Fowler
Clear
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Hi: 78° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 55°
Williamsport
Clear
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Hi: 77° Lo: 52°
Feels Like: 55°
Crawfordsville
Clear
51° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 53°
Feels Like: 51°
Frankfort
Overcast
51° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 51°
Delphi
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 54°
Monticello
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 54°
Logansport
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 50°
Feels Like: 54°
Very Warm, Then Rainfall Potential, Followed by Much Cooler Weather
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Confirmed Cases: 113337

Reported Deaths: 3530
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Grant89733
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Jackson7429
Morgan70638
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Daviess65428
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Decatur45739
Miami4303
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Fayette41813
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Washington2611
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