SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

May 21, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest update.

Posted: May 21, 2020 4:31 PM
Updated: May 21, 2020 9:53 PM

After lows of 51-57 this morning, highs today reached 62-70.

A few isolated showers/sprinkles are possible this evening to early tonight, followed by patchy dense fog potential after 2 a.m.

Lows should run 54-58 (57 Greater Lafayette).

Clouds/sun with a couple isolated showers/t'showers bubbling up tomorrow (20%) will lead to 71-79 highs (77 greater Lafayette).  Winds will be lighter at 4-10 mph & turn more to the south, then south-southwest.  It will feel rather sticky tomorrow with lack of wind with dew points in the 60s.

After lots of severe t'storms in the Plains, MCV from those storms will pivot from Missouri to northern Illinois, then southern Michigan Saturday.  This will serve as a trigger for two time periods for some storms.

First, a few storms are possible Saturday morning (35%) with the risk of an isolated severe storm (hail) will give way to a long period of lulling.

Skies will just be partly cloudy with temperatures warming to 84-88 with dew points 67-72 making it feel more like 88-96.

Winds will increase from the south up to 15-25 mph.

Second period will be a broken line/bow of storms in the evening.  A couple/few severe gusts are possible with it.

So, parameters look MARGINAL in the morning & SLIGHT in the evening, but we will await new SPC outlook later tonight.

Lows of 66-70 are likely Saturday night-Sunday morning.

A few storms may pop Sunday (coverage 30%) with highs 86-91 with heat indices 90-97.  Winds will run from the south-southwest at 10-15 mph.

Lows Sunday night-Monday morning will only drop to 69-73.

Lots of severe storms Sunday will lead to MCV that will pivot through Missouri, then then Illinois & Indiana Monday.

This will lead to storms Monday afternoon-evening.

A couple severe storms are possible.  The MCV may make for a localized area of shear & better lift, resulting in a small areas of SLIGHT RISK parameters over the area.

Highs of 84-89 are expected Monday with south-southwest winds 15-25 mph.  Heat indices may reach 89-96.

It looks very warm to hot & muggy Tuesday-Friday of next week with scattered storms at times & a southerly wind daily.  Overnight will be warm & humid with lows of 65-71 with highs in the 80s to perhaps as high as 90.

Storm coverage will tend to peak around 40-45% daily. 

Any severe weather risk would be isolated. Risk currently does not look to exceed MARGINAL Tuesday to Saturday of next week.

Looks like it will turn cooler & less humid later next weekend once a cold front passes Saturday.

Highs should run in the 70s with lows near 50 to the mid 50s.

Heat, humidity, strong southwest winds & storm risk return by June 3.

June 4 could have some SLIGHT RISK as parameters of that stature show up near & in the area.

Bit cooler, less humid weather should follow, but heat & humidity should return in full-force by June 6.

June 10-13 looks like the most active period here (severe weather-wise) of 2020 so far.  Multiple days of SLIGHT & exceedence of SLIGHT RISK parameters are seen.

It also looks very muggy & hot with us right on the edge of a hot ridge to our south with frontal boundary stalling over the area.

All severe hazards may end up on the table.

After that, severe weather corridor seems to shift to the Dakotas, Manitoba & Minnesota to western Ontario until we see a bit of severe risk sneak in here in the June 18-20 time frame.  However, it does not look like the set-up of June 10-13 when potent muli-episodal severe weather situation lines up.

Fall is warmer & drier than normal overall when analogging, which matches the pattern I am seeing dominate in the Fall.

December-January-February 2020-21 analog looks like this with temperature anomalies:

December-January-February 2020-21 analog looks like this with precipitation anomalies (I do think that the green will be a bit farther west than indicated in the analog data below [green is above normal precipitation]):

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 30901

Reported Deaths: 1964
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9040531
Lake3191167
Cass15796
Allen121365
St. Joseph113234
Hendricks110365
Hamilton109291
Johnson1065102
Elkhart93827
Madison57658
Bartholomew46733
Porter46521
Clark45038
LaPorte38721
Tippecanoe3563
Jackson3531
Howard34417
Delaware34027
Hancock31527
Shelby31121
Floyd31138
Boone27935
Morgan25724
Vanderburgh2402
Decatur22131
White2128
Montgomery21114
Clinton2041
Harrison18321
Grant17820
Noble17420
Dubois1712
Greene16723
Warrick16326
Dearborn16221
Monroe15810
Henry1556
Lawrence14222
Miami1351
Vigo1357
Putnam1297
Jennings1264
Orange12222
Scott1153
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Carroll882
Daviess8116
Steuben762
Newton7210
Wabash722
Kosciusko711
Wayne665
Marshall611
LaGrange592
Washington521
Jasper521
Fayette504
Fulton461
Rush452
Jefferson411
Jay410
Clay381
Pulaski380
Randolph373
Whitley342
Brown331
Sullivan311
Starke303
Owen301
DeKalb281
Knox240
Benton240
Crawford230
Perry230
Huntington222
Tipton221
Wells220
Switzerland190
Blackford191
Fountain172
Parke170
Posey170
Spencer141
Gibson132
Ohio130
Adams121
Warren121
Martin100
Union80
Vermillion80
Pike50
Unassigned0152
West Lafayette
Clear
88° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 91°
Kokomo
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 87°
Rensselaer
Scattered Clouds
88° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 88°
Fowler
Scattered Clouds
88° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 88°
Williamsport
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 88°
Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
83° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 85°
Frankfort
Clear
86° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 90°
Delphi
Clear
84° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 85°
Monticello
Clear
84° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 85°
Logansport
Clear
86° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 87°
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