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May 21, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest update.

Posted: May 21, 2020 4:31 PM
Updated: May 21, 2020 9:53 PM

After lows of 51-57 this morning, highs today reached 62-70.

A few isolated showers/sprinkles are possible this evening to early tonight, followed by patchy dense fog potential after 2 a.m.

Lows should run 54-58 (57 Greater Lafayette).

Clouds/sun with a couple isolated showers/t'showers bubbling up tomorrow (20%) will lead to 71-79 highs (77 greater Lafayette).  Winds will be lighter at 4-10 mph & turn more to the south, then south-southwest.  It will feel rather sticky tomorrow with lack of wind with dew points in the 60s.

After lots of severe t'storms in the Plains, MCV from those storms will pivot from Missouri to northern Illinois, then southern Michigan Saturday.  This will serve as a trigger for two time periods for some storms.

First, a few storms are possible Saturday morning (35%) with the risk of an isolated severe storm (hail) will give way to a long period of lulling.

Skies will just be partly cloudy with temperatures warming to 84-88 with dew points 67-72 making it feel more like 88-96.

Winds will increase from the south up to 15-25 mph.

Second period will be a broken line/bow of storms in the evening.  A couple/few severe gusts are possible with it.

So, parameters look MARGINAL in the morning & SLIGHT in the evening, but we will await new SPC outlook later tonight.

Lows of 66-70 are likely Saturday night-Sunday morning.

A few storms may pop Sunday (coverage 30%) with highs 86-91 with heat indices 90-97.  Winds will run from the south-southwest at 10-15 mph.

Lows Sunday night-Monday morning will only drop to 69-73.

Lots of severe storms Sunday will lead to MCV that will pivot through Missouri, then then Illinois & Indiana Monday.

This will lead to storms Monday afternoon-evening.

A couple severe storms are possible.  The MCV may make for a localized area of shear & better lift, resulting in a small areas of SLIGHT RISK parameters over the area.

Highs of 84-89 are expected Monday with south-southwest winds 15-25 mph.  Heat indices may reach 89-96.

It looks very warm to hot & muggy Tuesday-Friday of next week with scattered storms at times & a southerly wind daily.  Overnight will be warm & humid with lows of 65-71 with highs in the 80s to perhaps as high as 90.

Storm coverage will tend to peak around 40-45% daily. 

Any severe weather risk would be isolated. Risk currently does not look to exceed MARGINAL Tuesday to Saturday of next week.

Looks like it will turn cooler & less humid later next weekend once a cold front passes Saturday.

Highs should run in the 70s with lows near 50 to the mid 50s.

Heat, humidity, strong southwest winds & storm risk return by June 3.

June 4 could have some SLIGHT RISK as parameters of that stature show up near & in the area.

Bit cooler, less humid weather should follow, but heat & humidity should return in full-force by June 6.

June 10-13 looks like the most active period here (severe weather-wise) of 2020 so far.  Multiple days of SLIGHT & exceedence of SLIGHT RISK parameters are seen.

It also looks very muggy & hot with us right on the edge of a hot ridge to our south with frontal boundary stalling over the area.

All severe hazards may end up on the table.

After that, severe weather corridor seems to shift to the Dakotas, Manitoba & Minnesota to western Ontario until we see a bit of severe risk sneak in here in the June 18-20 time frame.  However, it does not look like the set-up of June 10-13 when potent muli-episodal severe weather situation lines up.

Fall is warmer & drier than normal overall when analogging, which matches the pattern I am seeing dominate in the Fall.

December-January-February 2020-21 analog looks like this with temperature anomalies:

December-January-February 2020-21 analog looks like this with precipitation anomalies (I do think that the green will be a bit farther west than indicated in the analog data below [green is above normal precipitation]):

West Lafayette
Clear
69° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 69°
Kokomo
Clear
63° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 63°
Rensselaer
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 59°
Fowler
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 59°
Williamsport
Broken Clouds
67° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 67°
Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
64° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 64°
Frankfort
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 65°
Delphi
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 65°
Monticello
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 65°
Logansport
Clear
64° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 64°
Turning Warmer & More Humid, Then Big Cool-Down
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