May 20, 11 PM Now-Winter 2020-21 Forecast & Trends

Here is your newest forecast & trends now to winter.

Posted: May 20, 2020 9:41 PM
Updated: May 20, 2020 11:18 PM

Highs today reached 57-67 after 51-58 this morning. 

As of 11 p.m., temperatures are 54-60 over the area.

The warmer temperatures occurred where there were holes & cracks in the overcast.

The greatest amount of sun occurred in our far northwest, so it was warmest in our viewing area there.

In fact, Momence, Illinois hit 71 & Peotone 68.  Griffith, Indiana reached 67, as did Hobart.  Indiana Dunes hit 70, while (even with a northeast wind off the lake), Chicago O'Hare hit 66.  Aurora, Illinois topped out at 67.  Benton Harbor, Michigan reached 69, while Muskegon saw 75.  It only warmed as you went northward with 78 at Ludington, Michigan & 78 as Manistee.

It was cooler southward.  The high at Indianapolis was just 58, while Greencastle, was 58.  The eastside of Indianapolis at the Mt Comfort Airport reached only 57.  Deep in southern Indiana it was only 61 at French Lick & Jasper-Huntingburg & 63 at Evansville.

Lows tonight will be rather steady in the 50s with east wind 10-20 mph.

A couple isolated showers/sprinkles are possible.

A period of 30% coverage of showers is possible tomorrow with 20% otherwise.  Clouds with some sun will result in highs 66-73 (near 71 Greater Lafayette).

Winds will be easterly at 12-24 mph.

After 50s tomorrow night, wind from the east will begin to turn to the south Friday.  It will be tend to be light at 4-10 mph.

Highs of 71-79 are likely (warmest far northwest, coolest east & around 77 at Greater Lafayette).

A couple isolated showers are possible as clouds bubble up with sunshine.

Lots of severe weather will occur Friday Oklahoma to Nebraska.  An MCV from all of those violent storms coelescing into multiple MCSs.

The pressure drop from the violent weather combines with Earth's Coriolis will form the very, very pronounced MCV. 

This should pivot through Missouri & Iowa & lead to some t'storms here Saturday morning, then a break & perhaps some more late in the day as we heat up big time.

Given the enhanced shear & lift southeast of the core of the MCV (thought it will be weakening with time), very warm, humid weather will contribute to considerable deeper-layer CAPE.

That said, SLIGHT RISK parameters show not only Saturday morning, but Saturday afternoon.

Any storms in the morning may be slightly elevated (hail at the moment), but they should be surface based Saturday afternoon-evening (wind, hail). 

We will monitor.  I went with 45% coverage of the storms currently for Saturday.

After 60-65 in the morning, highs should reach 82-87 with heat indices of 87-93.

Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

With breezy, warm to hot, humid weather, highs of 85-90 are expected Sunday & Memorial Day with lows 65-71.

Heat indices may peak at 90-96.

In terms of storms, I kept coverage at 40% Sunday & 45% Monday.

Looks like some scattered storms Sunday afternoon-evening with MARGINAL RISK parameters.

Slightly better coverage for Monday afternoon-evening is based on a weakening MCV working northeastward from Missouri to near Chicago in unstable airmass.  Preliminary parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK for severe weather.

Some storms are possible later Tuesday with 84-88, but the better shear & wind fields will be well northwest of our area.  It is the same thing for Wednesday.

Given the instability, however, an isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.

Trend is for La Nina to develop by September with continued shift toward this through spring. 

Typically in transition to La Nina & in La Nina, summer heat up more & in this SST we current have, you see a dry pocket in our area & over parts of the Corn Belt.  You can also see dryness in parts of the Northeast & Southeast (though increased tropical activity in the Gulf & Atlantic can help alleviate dryness). 

-PDO, -PNA, +NAO frequently & persistent Phase 5, 6, 7 MJO with traditional La Nina support warm, dry Fall & mild, wet winter with elevated risk of flooding & couple cool-season severe weather events/outbreaks November-February.

IOD is trending negative, which promotes the robust convection over warm water Indonesia, Philippines, to northern Australia & drier weather with sinking air westward in the Indian Ocean.

This also means drought for India to Oman & Somalia & then drought Hong Kong, Taiwan

This implies, wetter & milder here.

Euro model has mild winter, but I do think it should have blues in the Northern Rockies & western Canada for below normal temperatures.

It has everyone warmer than normal in the Lower 48.

CFSv2 seems to have this notion & all my analogs have this idea.

Wildcard thrown out there is Polar Vortex & you can't help but notice our continued lack of sunspots. 

Analogging similar years, they tended to lack Polar Vortex Arctic intrusions.  We will continue to monitor.

La Nina also tend to have more severe weather events & outbreaks in the spring over the Midwest & central to eastern Corn Belt, so we may get more severe weather action Spring 2021.

West Lafayette
Broken Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 84°
Kokomo
Scattered Clouds
80° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 59°
Feels Like: 83°
Rensselaer
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 81°
Fowler
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 81°
Williamsport
Overcast
79° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 81°
Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
77° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 79°
Frankfort
Scattered Clouds
77° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 78°
Delphi
Scattered Clouds
79° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 81°
Monticello
Scattered Clouds
79° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 81°
Logansport
Broken Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 83°
Nice calm evening & night ahead.
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