SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

May 20, 11 PM Now-Winter 2020-21 Forecast & Trends

Here is your newest forecast & trends now to winter.

Posted: May 20, 2020 9:41 PM
Updated: May 20, 2020 11:18 PM

Highs today reached 57-67 after 51-58 this morning. 

As of 11 p.m., temperatures are 54-60 over the area.

The warmer temperatures occurred where there were holes & cracks in the overcast.

The greatest amount of sun occurred in our far northwest, so it was warmest in our viewing area there.

In fact, Momence, Illinois hit 71 & Peotone 68.  Griffith, Indiana reached 67, as did Hobart.  Indiana Dunes hit 70, while (even with a northeast wind off the lake), Chicago O'Hare hit 66.  Aurora, Illinois topped out at 67.  Benton Harbor, Michigan reached 69, while Muskegon saw 75.  It only warmed as you went northward with 78 at Ludington, Michigan & 78 as Manistee.

It was cooler southward.  The high at Indianapolis was just 58, while Greencastle, was 58.  The eastside of Indianapolis at the Mt Comfort Airport reached only 57.  Deep in southern Indiana it was only 61 at French Lick & Jasper-Huntingburg & 63 at Evansville.

Lows tonight will be rather steady in the 50s with east wind 10-20 mph.

A couple isolated showers/sprinkles are possible.

A period of 30% coverage of showers is possible tomorrow with 20% otherwise.  Clouds with some sun will result in highs 66-73 (near 71 Greater Lafayette).

Winds will be easterly at 12-24 mph.

After 50s tomorrow night, wind from the east will begin to turn to the south Friday.  It will be tend to be light at 4-10 mph.

Highs of 71-79 are likely (warmest far northwest, coolest east & around 77 at Greater Lafayette).

A couple isolated showers are possible as clouds bubble up with sunshine.

Lots of severe weather will occur Friday Oklahoma to Nebraska.  An MCV from all of those violent storms coelescing into multiple MCSs.

The pressure drop from the violent weather combines with Earth's Coriolis will form the very, very pronounced MCV. 

This should pivot through Missouri & Iowa & lead to some t'storms here Saturday morning, then a break & perhaps some more late in the day as we heat up big time.

Given the enhanced shear & lift southeast of the core of the MCV (thought it will be weakening with time), very warm, humid weather will contribute to considerable deeper-layer CAPE.

That said, SLIGHT RISK parameters show not only Saturday morning, but Saturday afternoon.

Any storms in the morning may be slightly elevated (hail at the moment), but they should be surface based Saturday afternoon-evening (wind, hail). 

We will monitor.  I went with 45% coverage of the storms currently for Saturday.

After 60-65 in the morning, highs should reach 82-87 with heat indices of 87-93.

Winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

With breezy, warm to hot, humid weather, highs of 85-90 are expected Sunday & Memorial Day with lows 65-71.

Heat indices may peak at 90-96.

In terms of storms, I kept coverage at 40% Sunday & 45% Monday.

Looks like some scattered storms Sunday afternoon-evening with MARGINAL RISK parameters.

Slightly better coverage for Monday afternoon-evening is based on a weakening MCV working northeastward from Missouri to near Chicago in unstable airmass.  Preliminary parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK for severe weather.

Some storms are possible later Tuesday with 84-88, but the better shear & wind fields will be well northwest of our area.  It is the same thing for Wednesday.

Given the instability, however, an isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.

Trend is for La Nina to develop by September with continued shift toward this through spring. 

Typically in transition to La Nina & in La Nina, summer heat up more & in this SST we current have, you see a dry pocket in our area & over parts of the Corn Belt.  You can also see dryness in parts of the Northeast & Southeast (though increased tropical activity in the Gulf & Atlantic can help alleviate dryness). 

-PDO, -PNA, +NAO frequently & persistent Phase 5, 6, 7 MJO with traditional La Nina support warm, dry Fall & mild, wet winter with elevated risk of flooding & couple cool-season severe weather events/outbreaks November-February.

IOD is trending negative, which promotes the robust convection over warm water Indonesia, Philippines, to northern Australia & drier weather with sinking air westward in the Indian Ocean.

This also means drought for India to Oman & Somalia & then drought Hong Kong, Taiwan

This implies, wetter & milder here.

Euro model has mild winter, but I do think it should have blues in the Northern Rockies & western Canada for below normal temperatures.

It has everyone warmer than normal in the Lower 48.

CFSv2 seems to have this notion & all my analogs have this idea.

Wildcard thrown out there is Polar Vortex & you can't help but notice our continued lack of sunspots. 

Analogging similar years, they tended to lack Polar Vortex Arctic intrusions.  We will continue to monitor.

La Nina also tend to have more severe weather events & outbreaks in the spring over the Midwest & central to eastern Corn Belt, so we may get more severe weather action Spring 2021.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 30901

Reported Deaths: 1964
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9040531
Lake3191167
Cass15796
Allen121365
St. Joseph113234
Hendricks110365
Hamilton109291
Johnson1065102
Elkhart93827
Madison57658
Bartholomew46733
Porter46521
Clark45038
LaPorte38721
Tippecanoe3563
Jackson3531
Howard34417
Delaware34027
Hancock31527
Shelby31121
Floyd31138
Boone27935
Morgan25724
Vanderburgh2402
Decatur22131
White2128
Montgomery21114
Clinton2041
Harrison18321
Grant17820
Noble17420
Dubois1712
Greene16723
Warrick16326
Dearborn16221
Monroe15810
Henry1556
Lawrence14222
Miami1351
Vigo1357
Putnam1297
Jennings1264
Orange12222
Scott1153
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Carroll882
Daviess8116
Steuben762
Newton7210
Wabash722
Kosciusko711
Wayne665
Marshall611
LaGrange592
Washington521
Jasper521
Fayette504
Fulton461
Rush452
Jefferson411
Jay410
Clay381
Pulaski380
Randolph373
Whitley342
Brown331
Sullivan311
Starke303
Owen301
DeKalb281
Knox240
Benton240
Crawford230
Perry230
Huntington222
Tipton221
Wells220
Switzerland190
Blackford191
Fountain172
Parke170
Posey170
Spencer141
Gibson132
Ohio130
Adams121
Warren121
Martin100
Union80
Vermillion80
Pike50
Unassigned0152
West Lafayette
Clear
87° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 89°
Kokomo
Clear
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Hi: 87° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 88°
Rensselaer
Clear
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Feels Like: 87°
Fowler
Clear
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Feels Like: 87°
Williamsport
Clear
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Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 87°
Crawfordsville
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Hi: 84° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 82°
Frankfort
Clear
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Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 88°
Delphi
Clear
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Hi: 89° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 85°
Monticello
Clear
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Hi: 91° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 84°
Logansport
Clear
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Feels Like: 86°
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