May 2, 3:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Periods of rainfall, flooding & severe weather risk & an eventual change in the active pattern ahead.

Posted: May 2, 2019 1:56 PM
Updated: May 2, 2019 3:20 PM

There is the continued pattern & bottle neck.  It is record heat & dry weather in the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic & Southeast U.S.

Meanwhile, it is record cold in the Northern Rockies & Northern High Plains with below-normal temperatures to California, Arizona, Kansas then to northwestern Illinois & Wisconsin.

In-between it is active with rounds of rainfall & some severe weather at times.

Note how there is a blocking hot upper ridge in the East & also over northeastern Canada to Greenland.  At 3:16 p.m., it is an incredible 63 degrees at Stroemfjord, Greenland, which is surrounded by ice normally.  Sermersooq, Greenland is 51 atop permanent glacial ice right now.

Temperatures may reach 100 in parts of southern Georgia & eastern South & North Carolina with low to mid 90s to the Mid Atlantic.  We may even have a day where we get into the 90s as far north as central New York with mid 80s to Vermont, New Hampshire & into Quebec.  Many heat daily heat record may fall east & southeast of our area.  Low to mid 90s are possible in West Virginia with 90 in Ohio.

Note the record heat in parts of the eastern U.S. & the incredible warm, blocking ridge in the Arctic with temperatures to 50 degrees above normal over the next week!

Meanwhile, the Plains & Rockies are cold from Canada to Mexico.

Eventually we will see this pattern break down.............


We have seen some breaks in the rainfall at times today.

It should increase over the next few hours & be pretty wet this evening.

A couple isolated storms possible.

It will still be warm, even with the rainfall.

Temperatures are 64-69 over the area right now with pretty muggy dew points of 62-67.

It will remain warm & sticky into the late afternoon & evening.

Any severe weather risk looks to stay to our southeast where some clusters & lines & bows of storms are possible.

Some breaks in the clouds are possible Friday with highs 62-66 after 47-51 in the morning.

Wave of some rain & perhaps a couple isolated storms is likely late Friday evening-night to Saturday morning-midday (lows Friday night-Saturday morning 49-53).

Clearing should follow with northeast winds & highs Saturday of 60-66.

Saturday night looks chilly with front south of the area.  With clear skies & some patchy fog, lows of 39-45 are likely.

After a dry, bright Sunday with a light southwest wind & highs 70-76, front will move back southward a bit & some showers & storms will develop Monday.

Looks like front will try to move south, then get kicked back north to the far northern tier of the viewing area.

So, initially, some showers & storms may develop area-wide Monday early afternoon, then they will quickly migrate back northward by evening north of US 24.

Highs will vary from 71 north to 80 in the south & around 76 in Greater Lafayette.  Dew points will be on the rise into the 62-66 range making it feel a bit muggy.

Much of the severe weather risk will be northwest of our area (especially over Iowa), but a random isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Front should move far enough northward to potentially bring the warmest day of 2019 on Tuesday with highs 80-84 over the viewing area.

Tuesday is actually beginning to look mostly dry with a mix of clouds & sun & strong southwest winds.

To account for the potential change to the forecast, I kept 40% coverage of rainfall for that day.  It has the potential to be dropped to 20% or dropped altogether until Tuesday night.  We will monitor.

Dew points may reach 65-68 Tuesday-Wednesday, making it feel muggy.

More widespread rain & storms are shaping up for Tuesday night to Wednesday as front begins to sink back southward a bit.  If we can get it unstable enough, then some severe risk may develop.

Highs will tend to run in the 68-77 range.

We may see a dry spurt for part of Thursday to Friday before rain & storms return Friday afternoon-evening with warm front again draping over the area. 

Highs Thursday & Friday will run from 60s north to 70s to 80 in the south.

A substantial wave of low pressure is projected to pivot through Friday night-Saturday.

Main severe risk is Missouri to Texas, Oklahoma & Arkansas.  However, some risk may get as far northeast as our area.

The low is forecast to deepen with high dew points, warm, juicy airmass & unstable environment.  Meanwhile, wind fields through the troposphere are expected to increase, which may result in the severe risk here.

2-3.5" of rainfall is possible over the viewing area now to May 11.

We may see a brief spurt of dry weather May 12-13, but it likely won't be long enough to give soils much time to really dry out sufficiently.  Hopefully this changes & maybe we can tack on an extra day or two to get some drying.  This could allow some bits of field work & planting to commence on the driest ground that hasn't been worked or planted yet.  It is a long shot, but the probability at least isn't completely zero.

More periodic showers & storms will return May 14-17.

As pattern rolls on into mid-May, 2.75-5.50" of rainfall is possible now-May 17.

Note how everything tends to shift after mid-May.

Note how the big Greenland/northeast Canada/Arctic block shifts to Siberia & northwest Canada.

Meanwhile, upper ridging tends to shift a bit more to the northwest, so areas that were cold & wet turn warm & begin to dry over the Great Lakes & a chunk of the Midwest & Plains.

Regardless, the Rockies & western High Plains remain wet & cold with unseasonably cool weather as far south as California, Arizona & Baja California to northwestern Mexico.

Late May-early June shows a pattern shift with warmer, drier ridging expanding in the East.

There is also a tendency for the really wet conditions to subside in our area as the dry, hot, southeastern ridge expands.

Rainfall looks a bit below normal here.

The main axis of heavier rains looks to shift to the High Plains, Rockies & west Texas to New Mexico.

We may return to a wetter, rather stormy, cooler pattern (as compared to average) by mid to late June in our area with an axis of heavier rainfall from Michigan to Missouri & Oklahoma, northwestward to Nebraska & Iowa & Wisconsin.

Article Comments

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Warm Start, but Cooler Finish with Scattered Showers.
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