SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

May 19, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Wet weather, then drying out with much warmer temperatures.

Posted: May 19, 2020 11:50 AM
Updated: May 20, 2020 1:39 AM

After lows of 55-61 this morning, we have reached 65-73 today.  Temperatures were warmest where more sun appeared.

Rainfall coverage should increase to 50-60% this evening.  Keep your umbrella handy if taking the dog out this evening.

An isolated cold air funnel is possible in our southwestern counties briefly this evening.

Rainfall coverage will then decrease to 20% overnight to early Wednesday morning.

Lows tonight should run 54-58 with east winds 15-30 mph.

Clouds with some sun tomorrow & strong east winds 15-30 mph will accompany a few isolated showers.  Highs of 65-70 are likely.

Lows tomorrow night of 54-58 are likely with continued east wind with an isolated shower or two.

 

With clouds/sun (more sun northwest & western parts of viewing area) a few isolated showers are possible Thrusday with east winds 15-25 mph.  Highs of 66-75 are likely (warmest Greater Lafayette to Fowler to Morocco with more sun).

Much of the storm action will run from Manitoba, Montana & Saskatchewan to Texas, but we will get a some storms.

Timing is generally late Saturday-Saturday night, late Sunday-Sunday night & Monday afternoon.

MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters show up.  Higher risk will reside in the Plains.

It looks very warm to hot & humid Saturday & through all of next week.

Highs of 85-91 are likely with lows 65-71 & daily heat indices up to 90-97.

Looks like a summery Memorial Day with some storms possible.  Right now, trend is for after 3 p.m. for some storms.

Note the abnormal warmth from Ontario & Quebec to Texas, while it will be quite cool west of the Continental Divide May 19-May 26 (this includes the cooler weather now to Thursday).

The main axis of flooding rainfall & severe weather outbreak will be Kansas to Manitoba & eastern Montana to eastern Saskatchewan.

Idaho to Nevada & Utah & western Montana look cool & wet.

We actually look drier than normal, though it is typically a wet time of year.

It appears that nearly all of the storm action will shift to the Plains Tuesday-Friday of next week with it just being breezy to windy from the southwest & very warm to hot & humid here.

We will monitor for changes to see if the axis of heavier rain & storms shifts to the east at all. 

The extent of the warmth next Wednesday is impressive.  These are projected temperatures in the afternoon (not highs).  Note it pushing 90 at Chicago.

After bout of storms with severe weather risk May 30 we should see a brief burst of cooler, less humid weather. 

However, we should heat right back up with high humidity.

Projected for early June is hot & humid.  Note temperature projection below for the afternoon of June 3.  After temperatures are pushing 90 with high dew points.

Flooding & severe weather outbreaks may line up from Montana to Manitoba to Oklahoma in early June.

Early to mid June is trending warmer than normal.

Early to mid June is also trending normal to slightly below normal.  Heavy rainfall with flooding risk should occur western Ontario to Minnesota to Manitoba, the Dakotas, Montana & western Nebraska.

Hot upper ridging will tend to dominate the eastern U.S.

However, we should still get some t'storms at times.

Some 90s are likely here with heat indices +100 possible.

It does look warmer than normal for latter June.

There is a brief period noted in latter June that looks stormy with consecutive multi-day severe weather risk.  These bouts of storms will tend to push our rainfall above normal for latter June.

July continues to trend hotter & drier than normal.  Of course, the tropics are the wildcard.

Above normal July temperatures:

We need to watch & make sure the dry spells don't get too much out of control, given the persistent bouts of heat.

Bout of 95-101 is possible July with heat indices 105-118.

Rainfall looks below normal:

Summer (June-July-August) 2020 overall temperature anomalies:

Summer (June-July-August) 2020 overall rainfall anomalies:

Overall, it looks like a warmer than normal Fall for all of the Lower 48.

November looks especially warm (October averages quite warm, as well), while the start of meteorological Fall is more normal or a bit below normal. 

Fall (September-October-November) 2020 overall temperature anomalies:

Fall is also trending a bit drier than normal.  September tends to be wetter than normal, owing to increasing tropical activity pushed up into our area by persistent heat pump (or Bermuda high) in the summer.  The hot upper ridging will tend to push northeastward as well, pulling tropical remnants right up the Mississippi Valley toward our area.

October & November trend drier, but November look wetter than what could be a very dry October (tropics are wildcard early in the month).

Fall (September-October-November) 2020 overall rainfall anomalies:

So far, Winter (December-January-February) 2020-21 is trending mild & wet with below normal snowfall.  It looks warmer & wetter than last winter with less snowfall.  The snow season (October to April) looks below normal.  December shows the greatest anomalies above normal.

Both December & January show elevated risk of flooding & higher than normal risk of a couple severe weather events (all-out outbreaks just south of our area through the Ohio Valley).

We saw around 23" here at the station last snow season with overall totals in the area 13-35" (normal to above normal).

This is all based on analog & model analysis showing a tendency for at least weak La Nina this year, colder than normal water over Newfoundland & Greenland (promotes +NAO or warmer pattern in eastern U.S.) & lots of warm water in the northern Pacific around the Aleutians, promoting a negative PDO.

Negative PNA is suggested in modeled SST, as well.  This would mean cold part of West & Northern Plains, warmer East.

With a La Nina & the abnormally warm water forecast anyway north & east of Australia, there should be a lot of convection in the far western Equatorial Pacific keeping us in frequent Phase 5,6, 7 with the MJO.  This promotes cold weather in the West & warm, wet weather in the East & warm, drier weather in the Southeast.

So, trends are for drier, warmer Southeast, wetter, warmer Ohio Valley & Midwest to Northeast & a cold, snowy winter in the far northern Plains & Rockies.  The Pacific Northwest looks much wetter & snowier than normal, while warmer, drier weather is favored in central & southern California.

Conditions will be monitored for the next few months & frequent posts on the more likely (based on the most recent data) Fall-Winter 2020-21 outcomes will be released.

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