SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

May 18, 11:45 AM Weather Forecast Update

Some more rainfall ahead.

Posted: May 18, 2020 11:21 AM
Updated: May 18, 2020 5:40 PM

Since Thursday, 1-7" has fallen over the viewing area.  Total at WLFI ob site is 1.64".  Highest totals in the viewing area are north Newton & Jasper counties with up to 7".  However, even parts of Clinton County have seen 4".

There were 11 tornado reports yesterday, including 4 in Illinois.  It would not surprise be to see a couple more tornado reports come in from Illinois as there were a few very pronounced mesocirculations in the line.

There were a couple of decent ones in southwestern Indiana.

Analogging conditions Sunday, runs Friday showing high severe weather probability in part of our area to Ohio & then to Kentucky where temperatures were forecast to reach as high as 84.

Same thing in Saturday run.  SLIGHT type probabilities here, but much higher in eastern Indiana & western Ohio.

Saturday night runs showed continued severe weather risk from Illinois & Indiana to Tennessee & even Arkansas.

Biggest issue Sunday was too little sun & too much rainfall around.  Helicity values were impressive at up to 450 m2/s2 & bulk shear values of 45 knots were good. 

Issue was sun. 

Analog severe probabilities of 10-15% show up.

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Temperatures as of 11:45 p.m. are 62-69 over the viewing area.

Highs today should reach 65-72.

Low will just sit over central Illinois today, bubbling up some showers & t'showers.  Sky will be mostly cloudy.

Given the vorticity-rich environment, a funnel or two is possible.

The severe weather risk will be over eastern Indiana & central Kentucky to western Ohio.

This stalling is due to Tropical Storm Arthur to our southeast & upper low over Alabama to Georgia.

Our low will actually move backward to the southwest some Tuesday as upper low in the Southeast moves into Tennessee & the Carolinas.

They actually begin to combine by Tuesday evening over Tennessee to form one large bowling ball upper low.

This will bring showers to our area Tuesday with highs 65-72.

Heat will build in a ring west, northwest, north & northeast of our area with 80s in Ontario & Manitoba to as far north as Hudson Bay!

Note the temperature anomalies!  From Hudson Bay to Montana, western North Dakota to Colorado, temperatures may run 30-35 degrees above normal Tuesday!

In the second image, note the +40 degree temperature anomalies in Manitoba Thursday night!

We will get in on the summer warmth & humidity late week to next weekend.

T'Storms with severe weather risk return next weekend.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 30901

Reported Deaths: 1964
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion9040531
Lake3191167
Cass15796
Allen121365
St. Joseph113234
Hendricks110365
Hamilton109291
Johnson1065102
Elkhart93827
Madison57658
Bartholomew46733
Porter46521
Clark45038
LaPorte38721
Tippecanoe3563
Jackson3531
Howard34417
Delaware34027
Hancock31527
Shelby31121
Floyd31138
Boone27935
Morgan25724
Vanderburgh2402
Decatur22131
White2128
Montgomery21114
Clinton2041
Harrison18321
Grant17820
Noble17420
Dubois1712
Greene16723
Warrick16326
Dearborn16221
Monroe15810
Henry1556
Lawrence14222
Miami1351
Vigo1357
Putnam1297
Jennings1264
Orange12222
Scott1153
Ripley1126
Franklin1068
Carroll882
Daviess8116
Steuben762
Newton7210
Wabash722
Kosciusko711
Wayne665
Marshall611
LaGrange592
Washington521
Jasper521
Fayette504
Fulton461
Rush452
Jefferson411
Jay410
Clay381
Pulaski380
Randolph373
Whitley342
Brown331
Sullivan311
Starke303
Owen301
DeKalb281
Knox240
Benton240
Crawford230
Perry230
Huntington222
Tipton221
Wells220
Switzerland190
Blackford191
Fountain172
Parke170
Posey170
Spencer141
Gibson132
Ohio130
Adams121
Warren121
Martin100
Union80
Vermillion80
Pike50
Unassigned0152
West Lafayette
Clear
87° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 69°
Feels Like: 89°
Kokomo
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 88°
Rensselaer
Clear
86° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 87°
Fowler
Clear
86° wxIcon
Hi: 87° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 87°
Williamsport
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 87°
Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
81° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 83°
Frankfort
Scattered Clouds
85° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 88°
Delphi
Clear
83° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 85°
Monticello
Clear
83° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 85°
Logansport
Clear
84° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 86°
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