Since Thursday, 1-7" has fallen over the viewing area. Total at WLFI ob site is 1.64". Highest totals in the viewing area are north Newton & Jasper counties with up to 7". However, even parts of Clinton County have seen 4".
There were 11 tornado reports yesterday, including 4 in Illinois. It would not surprise be to see a couple more tornado reports come in from Illinois as there were a few very pronounced mesocirculations in the line.
There were a couple of decent ones in southwestern Indiana.
Analogging conditions Sunday, runs Friday showing high severe weather probability in part of our area to Ohio & then to Kentucky where temperatures were forecast to reach as high as 84.
Same thing in Saturday run. SLIGHT type probabilities here, but much higher in eastern Indiana & western Ohio.
Saturday night runs showed continued severe weather risk from Illinois & Indiana to Tennessee & even Arkansas.
Biggest issue Sunday was too little sun & too much rainfall around. Helicity values were impressive at up to 450 m2/s2 & bulk shear values of 45 knots were good.
Issue was sun.
Analog severe probabilities of 10-15% show up.
Temperatures as of 11:45 p.m. are 62-69 over the viewing area.
Highs today should reach 65-72.
Low will just sit over central Illinois today, bubbling up some showers & t'showers. Sky will be mostly cloudy.
Given the vorticity-rich environment, a funnel or two is possible.
The severe weather risk will be over eastern Indiana & central Kentucky to western Ohio.
This stalling is due to Tropical Storm Arthur to our southeast & upper low over Alabama to Georgia.
Our low will actually move backward to the southwest some Tuesday as upper low in the Southeast moves into Tennessee & the Carolinas.
They actually begin to combine by Tuesday evening over Tennessee to form one large bowling ball upper low.
This will bring showers to our area Tuesday with highs 65-72.
Heat will build in a ring west, northwest, north & northeast of our area with 80s in Ontario & Manitoba to as far north as Hudson Bay!
Note the temperature anomalies! From Hudson Bay to Montana, western North Dakota to Colorado, temperatures may run 30-35 degrees above normal Tuesday!
In the second image, note the +40 degree temperature anomalies in Manitoba Thursday night!
We will get in on the summer warmth & humidity late week to next weekend.
T'Storms with severe weather risk return next weekend.