May 19, 12 AM Weather Forecast Update

Storms ahead with severe weather risk & more summer-like weather after very brief bout of much cooler weather.

Posted: May 18, 2019 10:07 PM
Updated: May 19, 2019 10:28 AM

Saturday was the warmest day of 2019 so far for the entire viewing area.  Highs ranged from 85-88, though dew points dropped a bit in the afternoon (from 64-69 to 50s to lower 60s) as strong winds from the southwest 20-40 mph mixed down some drier air.

From the Lafayette area & northwestward, outflow boundary emanating from early storms line up from near Chicago & Gary to Peoria, surged southeastward & become increasing diffuse with time.

However, it was responsible for a band of some enhanced cumulus clouds & a wind shift & decrease from southwest to northwest, then east.

This outflow boundary, though completely dissipated over a Pine Village to Lafayette Delphi to Rochester, did result in up to a 10-degree temperature drop fromm 84-86 to around 75 for a bit early Saturday evening!

The dew points also increased with the passage of the outflow boundary as the strong wind mixing stopped & the moist air from the old storms came in & surged our dew points from 50s to lower 60s to 64-70.

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Highs Saturday:

88...U.S. 41/Route 18 (Fowler)

88...Fowler (Mesonet)

88...Frankfort

88...I-65/Route 28 (Frankfort)

88...Galveston Airport

87...WLFI

87...Attica (Mesonet)

87...Kokomo Municipal Airport

87...Flora Municipal Airport

87...I-65/U.S. 24 (Remington)

87...Peru Municipal Airport

86...Morocco (Mesonet)

86...I-74/Route 63 (Covington)

86...Purdue University Airport

86...Monticello-White County Airport

86...Kentland Municipal Airport

86...Rochester-Fulton County Airport

86...Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport

86...Logansport-Cass County Airport

86...Grissom Air Reserve Base (Bunker Hill)

86...Winamac CWOP

86...I-74/U.S. 231 (Crawfordsville)

85...Crawfordsville Municipal Airport

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Lots of severe weather Saturday west of us from Missouri to Texas.

Lots of flash flooding has been occurring in Iowa from torrential storms.

ONE OF TWO SCENARIOS LOOK TO DEVELOP TOMORROW:

SCENARIO #1:

What is left of the Plains outbreak arrives as a gusty weakening band of rainfall with a very loosely-organized line very early Sunday morning.

One segment of the line/band passes & exits by mid-morning, coming up from the southwest

Then another piece will race up from the south & encounter more instability as bits of sun appear & a side-swipe of better dynamics comes into the area.

Convergence also increases with the loose line of storms on the leading edge of the band, helping squall line to organize & intensify right over the area or in the far eastern parts of the area.

As this occurs pretty rapidly, some severe weather risk in the late morning to very early afternoon hours develops.  Main threat is wind with secondary isolated brief tornado risk.

Again, it is unclear whether such organizations, intensification would occur in the heart of the area or eastern fringe in this scenario.

This should be out of the viewing area by 1 p.m. with severe weather risk lining up from southeastern Michigan, all the way to Kentucky.

Mid-afternoon to evening spokes of some scattered storms come through with some severe risk as rows of towering cumulus pivot in ahead of & along the cold front.

Severe risk is wind, then hail, then brief weak tornado if atmosphere can recover well from morning-midday rainfall/storms.

SCENARIO #2:

Weakening round of some showers & few storms in the morning as dynamics remain west of us & low-level jet veers.

Then, with sunshine, temperatures rise, sun appears & new line of storms forms & passes afternoon-evening with a few embedded supercells possible.  This will occurs as cold front approaches & passes & better dynamics arrive with the increasing instability of the sunshine.

Wind, brief isolated tornado & hail risk will exist.

Regardless of either scenarion, SLIGHT RISK of severe weather is up area-wide with highs 76-80 over the area with strong south to southwest winds up to 40 mph.

Monday is dry, breezy to windy & cool with much lower humidity & lake breeze front penetrating well to the south later in the day with the north wind.

Highs should run 57 north to 70 south.

Clouds will increase Monday night with 40s to 50 as warm front approaches.

It should pass through area pretty quickly Tuesday morning, followed by a return of summer.

With the return of summer, a round of storms is possible Tuesday night.

Significant severe weather outbreak is likely Kansas to Texas Monday-Monday night.

Outbreak of severe is likely in Missouri to Illinois Tuesday.

We get the line Tuesday night, mainly after 10 p.m.

Main severe risk corridor is Missouri & Illinois, but risk of damaging winds & a couple tornadoes still cannot be ruled out here.

Wednesday looks dry, windy with sun & very warm highs of 84-88, followed by 85-88 Thursday & 86-90 Friday & Saturday.  The humidity looks rather highs on all of these days & the winds look quite strong daily from the southwest at 20-30 mph.

Friday & Saturday nights look particularly warm with lows at only 70-74 with a strong southwest wind all night.

It looks mostly dry, other than a few storms Thursday, but the main storm corridor looks to be Texas to Wisconsin during this time with blocking upper ridge with near record heat in the southeastern to northeastern U.S.

A corridor from eastern Virginia to southeastern Alabama & northern Florida may see 95-102 for actual air temperatures late this week to next weekend. 

Even in the Northeast, we may have a day or two now to next weekend that sees highs reach the 90s.

The next potential of widespread storms & severe risk after Tuesday night is the afternoon-evening of Tuesday, May 28, at the moment.

Lafayette
Cloudy
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Hi: 33° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 20°
Kokomo
Cloudy
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Hi: 33° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 20°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
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Hi: 30° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 20°
Lafayette
Cloudy
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Hi: 30° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 20°
Danville
Cloudy
28° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 20°
Frankfort
Cloudy
27° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 15°
Frankfort
Cloudy
27° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 15°
Monticello
Cloudy
27° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 18°
Monticello
Cloudy
27° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 18°
Logansport
Cloudy
28° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 18°
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