May 17, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Latest information on the a couple days of severe weather risk ahead in the near future.

Posted: May 17, 2019 9:15 PM
Updated: May 17, 2019 11:08 PM

Highs today rain 70-84 over the viewing area.

It cooled off to the 50s & 60s in the northwest, however midday-afternoon.

It is 53-74 over the area as of 9:40 p.m.

Lake breeze front has really gained traction & nearly fused with the warm front.

North of the warm front, winds were northeasterly lastnight-today, which allowed nice fetch of cold air to develop over the lake.  This cold pool has been expanding since.

This has been in a battle to push the warm front southward again.

Temperatures were as high as 92 in southern Indiana today & that heat is trying to build back northward, but the lake breeze is in a push.

The isolated showers & storms this evening have pulled east & northeastward.

The lift with the warm front is well north, but the lake front is undercutting the warm front, so it is pushed south.  That warmer, unstable air south of the warm front is being thrust thousands of feet up atop the cold lake air & cool air north of the warm front.

This had resulted in t'storms & 40s in Chicago.

We look dry the rest of tonight with partly cloudy skies & the lake front being pushed back to the northwest.

Warm front should surge northward, so everyone is in the 60s by early morning (60 northwest to 68 in the south) in response to storm system ejecting out of the Rockies & into the Plains.

Tomorrow looks windy, very warm with sunshine & a few clouds at 85-89.  Southwest winds may gust 30-40 mph.

The winds may actually mix down some drier air, so dew points may drop from 64-70 initially to 58-64 by afternoon.

After 60s to 70 Saturday night for lows with southwest winds 15-30 mph, Sunday looks windy with two main waves of showers & storms.

Check out the heat at 2 p.m. Saturday!

Leftovers of Plains severe weather outbreak will arrive in our area Sunday morning as a loosely-organized band of showers & storms.  There may still be remnants of a line with some severe risk embedded.

Once this passes, some sun will appear with a warm up to 70 to lower 80s with strong gusty southwest winds to 35 mph.

Spoke of new storms will likely fire in Illinois & pivot eastward Sunday mid-afternoon.  A line with embedded scattered severe storms may race through the area late afternoon to evening.

Ultimately, severe magnitude will be determined by how much sun appears Sunday afternoon & how unstable it gets.  At this point, sun, instability & strength of the storm system does support the SLIGHT RISK of severe weather.

Front should sink southward to Tennessee Monday.

With north winds, lake breeze front may make it all the way to Fowler & Monticello, resulting in temperatures in the 50s northwest, 60s part of the area & 70-74 south Monday.

Front should swing back north later Tuesday with a late-day ralley to highs of 72-85 over the area from north to south.

Severe weather outbreak is likely west & southwest of us Tuesday afternoon, followed by the storms moving into our area Tuesday night with temperatures of 74-77 before the storms with strong southerly winds up to 32 mph.

This, after yet another severe weather outbreak Iowa to Texas Monday evening-night.

Strong Plains storm with classic Enhanced V is projected on Simulated IR satellite showing the severe weather risk.  Severe storms should backbuild or "zipper" back from Illinois to Missouri.

Our impacts would tend to be after 10 p.m. to about 6 a.m.

We will monitor closely.

At this point, the best potential of outbreak is Illinois & west & soutwestward, but we will still have risk here, just not quite as high.

It may be a situation of MODERATE RISK in Missouri & Illinois & ENHANCED to SLIGHT RISK for our area from west to east. 

Still, it is the best shear, dynamics & instability combo since last spring projected, even into the night.

We shall see.

Wednesday looks dry with 77-85.

Storm clusters should flare back up  from Texas to Kansas & Missouri to Wisconsin Thursday.

We may see a few storms, but most of them look to stay west of our area, it appears with our highs of 82-86.

Friday looks very active just west of us with severe storms, but we look dry, windy, warm & humid with highs 84-89.

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Widespread rainfall returns Sunday
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