May 16, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Risk of severe weather.

Posted: May. 16, 2019 11:50 AM
Updated: May. 16, 2019 12:19 PM

Highs today should run 76-82 with breezy to windy conditions from the south to southwest.

Storm Prediction Center has SLIGHT RISK of severe along & north of an Ambia to Attica to Crawfordsville line & MARGINAL RISK south of there for this afternoon through tonight.

Non-severe wave of rain & storms should fade over southeastern Wisconsin to northern Illinois as it moves southeastward.

We will continue to pick up debri cloudiness blowing off the top of it.

On its tail end of its outflow boundary/remnant MCV a compact supercell cluster(s) or a couple/few supercells may develop this afternoon-evening with severe risk.  All severe risks on the table for it given environment.  It will slide southeastward along a gP height gradient between warmer (higher heights) to the west & cooler (lower heights) to the east with warm front draped in the area.

Best potential of the storms is generally northeast of I-65 at the moment, but we will monitor closely for changes.

Cluster of storms should also pass overnight-early Friday morning with best potential north of an Ambia to Attica to Linden line.

Some severe risk is possible, mainly hail & wind with SLIGHT RISK remaining.

It should weaken & depart early Friday morning as low-level jet weakens & veers away from the viewing area.

Much of tomorrow is dry, windy, warm & muggy with highs in the 80s, but it may stay at 70 to the 70s in the north.

Along the warm front & outflow boundary of the overnight to early morning storm cluster, a few storms may pop in the afternoon-evening tomorrow, however.

MARGINAL RISK of severe weather is up along & north of an Earl Park to Brookston to Kokomo line any all severe threats from any isolated storms.

Projected rainfal now to Friday evening continues to show potential of a 1 to +2" band in northeastern areas with less elsewhere & some areas in the southwest seeing little.

Saturday looks dry, windy, very warm to hot & humid with highs 84-88 & southwest winds 20-35 mph.

SLIGHT RISK of severe risk is up Sunday.

Timing is generally in the afternoon.

Monday is dry & 70s to lower 80s, but severe risk returns Tuesday.

Thinking this SLIGHT RISK for day 6 will be expanded northeastward to the area.

Timing is late afternoon-evening.

Rainfall now-Tuesday looks to be lightest in the south & southwest with some totals of just 0.40-0.50", while totals will tend to increase with north & northeastward extent.

Heaviest looks to run along the Kankakee River & then in a band over the northeast with 1-2.75" possible.

Wednesday currently looks dry with 70s to 80, followed by a wave of storms with some severe risk either Thursday or early Friday.

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Dry, but Cooler For Monday
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