Highs today reached 69-75 after 41-50 this morning.
Spotty showers will occur this evening. These will increase to scattered showers for a while tonight (trace to 0.07" rainfall) with lows 51-55. However, tomorrow is actually looking mostly dry now.
With a mix of clouds & sun, highs of 73-79 are expected with south to southeast winds 10-20 mph.
Lows of 56-62 are likely tomorrow night.
Rounds of rainfall & a few storms are possible late Sunday night & into Monday.
Original thinking was highs of 76-81 Monday. I am thinking more like 70-75 now.
Scattered showers & storms are possible Tuesday with some MARGINAL RISK parameters sneaking in as we warm to 77-84 with a strong, humid south-southeast to south wind up to 35 mph.
SLIGHT RISK parameters are up through Illinois, eastern Missouri & eastern Iowa. We will monitor for any migration of the SLIGHT RISK parameters eastward.
This, after Tuesday morning lows of 59-65.
Very warm to hot, humid to muggy air will overspread the area mid to late next week with a seemingly early onset of summer.
Round after round of severe weather will occur Texas to Manitoba.
Here, these rounds of storm may just clip our area at times Wednesday, May 19 to Saturday, May 23 with around 30% coverage averaged daily.
The hot southeast upper ridge & strong Bermuda surface high will act as a blog & keep us windy & just muggy & very warm.
80s to 90 are likely here for air temperature, but the dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s will make it feel much warmer. It'll be more like June than May!
As any storms try to clip our area, we will monitor for brief bouts of severe risk.
The biggest outbreak in the Plains is shaping up for next Saturday with ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK parameters showing up west of our area. From the Dakotas to Oklahoma to Minnesota, Iowa & Missouri degrees of severe weather risk will exist.
The more widespread storm action & higher, more widespread severe weather risk will work eastward, centering on our area in the May 25-28 time frame.
At that point, we still look very warm & humid to muggy with better dynamics racing overhead from the southwest with strong low-level flow continuing from the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, cold front will be sliding through the area.
After a lull, there are signs of a big severe weather outbreak from Kansas to Missouri to southern Nebraska near May 31 that will migrate eastward to our area around June 1.
The preliminary parameters from a model & analog standpoint are impressive on the order of MODERATE to HIGH RISK in the Plains.
However, risk is less as it moves eastward. However, still worthy of the mention of severe weather risk here of SLIGHT RISK (given current parameters).