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May 14, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Early onset of summer ahead!

Posted: May 14, 2021 5:36 PM
Updated: May 14, 2021 9:46 PM

Lows this morning ran 37-46 after 33-40 yesterday morning.

Highs today ran 69-75 after 64-71 yesterday.

One impressive thing about today were the extremely low dew points (very dry air).  Relative humidity levels were as low as 15% with dew points in the 20s, despite temperatures at 70 to the mid 70s.

We lost a lot moisture from the wet soils from the heavy rainfall.

Highs Saturday of 70-76 are expected with clouds & some sunshine & southerly winds 12-25 mph.

The air will be dry, but a few showers will make it down to the ground in mainly the afternoon.  Coverage should peak at 30%.  Don't cancel outdoor plans, just be ready for a few passing showers.

After lows of 55-61 tomorrow night with a few isolated to spotty showers, a mix of clouds & sun will be the story Sunday after some morning showers (35%).

In the afternoon, a couple isolated showers may bubble up, otherwise it should be 74-79 with southerly winds at 12-24 mph.

Sunday night-Monday morning, a round of more widespread showers & a few storms are expected (55%).  Lows will run 58-63 with southerly winds 10-15 mph.

As for next week, it looks summery & windy (especially mid to late week) with strong flow around Bermude surface high from the Gulf of Mexico.

Blocking pattern will set up with multiple waves of surface lows riding through the Plains with stalled front, leading with severe weather events & outbreaks every day.

Here, we may see some severe weather risk creep in, with episodes of showers/storm nearly every day.  Worst of the risk is evolving for next weekend.

Expect increasingly muggy weather with high dew points, temperatures in the 80s to eventually even around 90 & lows in the 60s & 70s.

Some locally-heavy rainfall will occur.

This pattern should break down by May 26.

Brief bout of comfortable weather will turn back to heat & humidity as we end May & move into June 90 to the 90s are possible with severe weather risk creeping in potentially around June 1.

June still looks warmer than normal.

June is still trending drier than normal with above normal rainfall northwest & south of the area.

July still looks warmer than normal.

July is also trending drier than normal.

Overall, we have the best potential of getting to 100 or the 100s since 2012 in the viewing area.  Drought may worsen, but pulsey severe storms in the intense heat & instability & "Ring of Fire" storm complexes may give some relief at times.

There continues to be a higher porential of a Progressive Derecho to hit the area this summer.

We will watch the tropics as they will be more active than normal for the Atlantic hurricane season.  However, it does not look as active as the record-breaking season last year.

You can still see the trend toward a double-dip La Nina.

Note our dip winter to spring 2020-21 & then note how we go neutral mid-summer.  There continues to be a trend of La Nina late summer & beyond, so the neutral window will be negligable.

The trend is for the La Nina next winter to not be as strong as this past winter.  Nonetheless, the effects of La Nina will continue to linger in a solid way with above normal precipitation & above normal temperatures, but the tendency for some extremes of wind, rainfall.  Snowfall ended up near to above normal due to that very snowy period in February.  So far, May has been the only cooler than normal month, other than February, since 2020, or one year.  Latest analysis shows no reason to believe the pattern next winter would differe a whole lot from this past winter.  Colder spells might be able to make it in more given slightly weaker La Nina & Southeast subtropical high.

As for beyond winter to next spring, we should go neutral, then toward El Nino with wet, cooler summer next year & wet, cooler Fall, as well.

West Lafayette
Clear
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Hi: 84° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 83°
Kokomo
Clear
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Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 81°
Rensselaer
Clear
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Hi: 77° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 75°
Fowler
Clear
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Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 83°
Williamsport
Clear
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Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 81°
Crawfordsville
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 79°
Frankfort
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 79°
Delphi
Clear
80° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 79°
Monticello
Clear
80° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 79°
Logansport
Clear
79° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 79°
Beautiful Week Ahead. Cooler, drier and less humid.
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