Clearing, patchy dense fog & cold temperatures will occur tonight with lows 37-42.
Few isolated showers/t'showers are possible Wednesday (20-25% coverage) with a mix of clouds & sun as cold front moves through.
After 67-73 Wednesday, highs look to run 76-82 Thursday as front lifts back north as a warm front.
Winds will increase from the southwest at 15-25 mph Thursday.
A couple of stray isolated showers & storms are possible Thursday overnight.
It looks windy, very warm & humid Friday-Saturday with highs 83-88 with lows 65-70 & partly cloudy skies.
On average, the first time we reach 85 is around mid-May in our area.
Wave of showers & storms is possible Sunday as front moves back southward as a cold front.
Highs of 78-83 are likely Sunday.
An isolated severe storm is possible.
As quickly as that happens, front will move back north as a warm front Monday.
Highs of 76-82 are likely Monday after 50s to lower 60s in the morning.
Analogs suggests quite a bit of action over various areas of the Plains & Midwest Sunday-Wednesday of next week.
There is a high probability, so far out, of at least 5 reports of severe weather within 110 km of a grid point in the yellow & orange areas.
The probability here is 45% to nearly 60%. This is likely mainly tied to Tuesday in our area.
Supercell Composite Index is just an overall good index that combines shear, instability & dynamics to show areas of higher severe risk.
It is impressive in the Plains Monday with tornado risk high Nebraska to Oklahoma.
Risk expands eastward into our area Tuesday (albeit not as high as the Plains, but still highest potential of 2019 so far so far out).
There is certainly a warm anomaly here!
The buffer between the substantial warm & cold anomalies will be a breeding ground for severe storms.
Storms are possible later Tuesday with severe risk & highs in the 80s.
Weekend-early next week looks significant for severe weather in the Plains with a big outbreak possible with the most widespread, higher risk levels of 2019 so far.
Tuesday late looks like a squall line with mainly severe wind risk, though a few isolated tornadoes are possible if timing is indeed during expected peak heating.
This is the best risk we have seen in 2019 so far.
Most have looked like MARGINAL to SLIGHT scenarios.
Front goes back north as a warm front again late next week, bathing us in strong, warm, humid southwest winds.
It does look dry Tuesday, May 21-Friday, May 24.
We may see a round of storms with severe risk Friday evening, May 24.
At this point, Tuesday's parameters look better for more organized severe risk than Friday, but both show at least some severe risk.
We will monitor.
Temperatures in the 80s will proceed the storms.
Analog data shows a severe corridor centered from the Plains to Midwest.
This mainly concerns May 24 severe risk here with 35% of top 105 analogs with 5 severe weather reports within 110 km of a grid point.
Supercell Composite Index blows up another major Plains outbreak & then sends the leftovers east for here Friday.
The Monday or Thursday PLAINS outbreaks could feature a HIGH RISK area if current parameters hold.
Looks cooler & dry May 25-27 before heating back up again.
Analog shows severe shift to the Plains & away from here at bit May 25-27.