May 13, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Severe weather risk & much warmer weather ahead.

Posted: May 13, 2020 4:10 PM
Updated: May 13, 2020 10:35 PM

After 61-66 yesterday & 36-44 this morning, we reached 60-69 today.  It was coolest in the south where clouds were around the most today & where some rain-cooled air (from rain north of the warm front in southern Indiana as the rain fell into dry air & evaporatively-cooled that zone) migrated northward.

This is why we hit 67 at the Purdue Airport (& here at the station) near midday, then dropped to 63-64.

A few showers & isolated storms will develop with time overnight with lows 52-58 rising to 55-62.

There are three periods to watch for a couple to few severe storms:

1.  Thursday Near Midday to Early Afternoon

It appears that there will be a period of some severe weather risk near midday to early afternoon Thursday. 

Main threat is wind with secondary threat hail or a brief, short-lived tornado.

2.  Thursday Evening Far North

A few storms may skim by our northern counties (northern Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, Fulton) in the evening with some severe risk.

3.  Thursday Night/Early Friday Morning 1 a.m. to 4 a.m.

Then, a lull should ensue with dry, windy, warm conditions (highs 75-80 [& rather muggy]), followed by a line of storms after midnight Thursday night night to as late as 4 a.m. as it passes through the viewing area.

Main threat is wind.  An isolated brief, short-lived tornado cannot completely be ruled out.

SLIGHT RISK is up for all three bouts for the area.

Tonight, through tomorrow to tomorrow evening:

Tomorrow night to early Friday morning:

We will turn partly cloudy Friday with 70s after some morning showers.

Much of the re-development of storms with MARGINAL RISK parameters will be just south & southeast of our area.

However, a few spotty storms are possible.  I kept afternoon coverage at 30% after 50% rainfall early in the morning (kept 40% in the 7-day to average).

It will turn a bit less humid north to south with time Friday with southwest winds 20-30 mph turning to the west at 15-30 mph.

Saturday looks partly cloudy & dry (73-81) until evening when we cloud up & showers & t'storms move back in.  These are likely Saturday night with an isolated severe storm or two possible (MARGINAL RISK parameters).  Winds will turn from the northeast & east to the southeast & south at 10-20 mph.

After a lull, Sunday afternoon-evening should feature a line of storms with some severe weather risk (SLIGHT RISK parameters) after highly 78-82.  Sunday will be a windy day with south-southwest to south winds 20-30 mph.

TOTAL RAINFALL now to Sunday night looks to run 1.50-3.50".

The humid to muggy conditions will surge back in.

Monday looks good with lots of sun & cooler, less humid conditions at 66-75 & a crisp 47-54 Monday night.  Monday looks breezy with northwest winds 15-25 mph before decreasing to 10-15 mph & turning to the east Monday night.

Summer heat & windy, dry weather arrives later next week with highs 87-91 & lows 65-70.

After Sunday, it still looks like severe weather risk will return around May 25-26.

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