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May 11, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

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Posted: May 11, 2021 9:40 PM
Updated: May 11, 2021 10:31 PM

Lows this morning ran 35-44.  This was a hair warmer than 33-39 projection due to clouds & breeze hanging on a bit longer.

At Greater Lafayette, we were already pushing 60 at noon today & then we leveled off.  Why?  Wind actually turned more due north than northeast today.  That brought the lake breeze front farther south than expected & chilled things for the afternoon.

Highs for the viewing area ran 52-64, rather than 57-66 to due slight change in the wind component over the still cold water of Lake Michigan.

One lobe of colder air dropped southward into our eastern half, then the other lobe from the lake dropped over northwestern half.  At least the southwest saw the lake breeze come in later, allowing highs of 60-64.

Wind component more northeast & east-northeast tomorrow will keep colder lake breeze front more toward northeastern Illinois than the viewing area & northward over northwestern Indiana.

Lows tonight will run 32-39 (coldest north of US 24) & 34-36 in the heart of the viewing area, including Greater Lafayette.

The record for tomorrow morning at Purdue (back to 1879) is 31 set in 1960.

South of 28, lows of 36-39 are likely.

More in the way of high & mid clouds will keep the south warmer.

The biggest areas of frost will occur in the north.

Some patchy fog is possible.

Tomorrow should feature high & any mid clouds in the south departing, followed by some fair-weather cumulus clouds & highs 62-68 (66 Greater Lafayette).  Winds will be northeast, then east-northeast to east at 10-25 mph.

35-41 is likely tomorrow night with some patchy frost north fo US 24.  Some patchy fog is possible.

As for Thursday, wind will turn to the east at 5-10 mph.  With sunshine & fair-weather cumulus clouds, highs of 64-70 (68 Greater Lafayette are expected.

Thursday night will still be a bit cool at 38 north of US 24 to 46 in the south (43 Greater Lafayette)

As for Friday, it looks mostly sunny with southeast wind in the morning becoming south by midday & through the afternoon at 10-15 mph.

Highs should reach 70-76.  It will not be as cool Friday night with mostly clear skies & lows 47-53 (50 Greater Lafayette).

Some increasing clouds are expected Saturday (some increasing high/mid clouds mixed with cumulus clouds).

Winds will be south to southeasterly at 10-25 mph.  Highs of 71-77 are likely (75 Greater Lafayette).

With warm front stalling around & just northwest & north of the viewing area & surface waves riding it, showers & storms will occur at times Sunday-Tuesday.

Some MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK may creep in with temperatures in the 70s & 80s over the area & high dew points in the 60s to 70 arriving.

Some locally-heavy rainfall is possible with sunshine in-between rounds of showers & storms. 

45

Additional rounds of showers & storms are expected at times Wednesday-Friday.  It will be windy, warm & humid to muggy with temperatures surging well into the 80s with dew points 60s to lower 70s making it feel like early summer.

The main upper trough & front move through around May 20 or 21.

That is when severe weather risk would tend to peak with parameters suggesting SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK of severe weather.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible.

Sunday-Friday total rainfall of 2-6" is possible.

Looking at CIPS Analog data, there is a signature for severe weather late next week.

Probability of 10 severe weather reports within 68 miles of a point:

Probability of tornado within 68 miles of a point from latest CIPS analog data:

Rainfall is locally heavy:

Note how the warmth & high humidity brings probability of heat indices into the 90s:

After a brief cool-down, note how the storm track surges WAY to the north.  This means summer heat enveloping in the eastern U.S.  Our first 90 (to 90s) is likely.

The severe weather corridor will tend to round from the Canadian Prairies to Montana, Wyoming, the Dakotas & then to Minnesota, Wisconsin & northern Iowa.

Severe weathe risk is possible around June 1, but the overall trend into June is lots of upper ridging with lots of hot, hot weather.

Note how the upper jet goes WAY, WAY north with upper ridging tending to dominate frequently.

No doubt into mid-June we will need to watch Progressive Derecho risk & some random severe weather amidst a hot, muggy, often capped regime.

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Beautiful Week Ahead. Cooler, drier and less humid.
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