May 10, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

Flooding on rivers & streams, fog & frost for one more night then big change.

Posted: May 10, 2021 11:04 AM
Updated: May 10, 2021 9:31 PM

It was another cold morning in the 32-36 range with frost & fog.  Coldest temperatures were in the northern & northeastern counties.

I expected 30s to around 41 in this period of May (with some patchy frost north & northeast) dating back to early April, but not 32-33.  Getting to 32 is a bit more uncommon, but mid to upper 30s in early May are not.  Last 36 of the spring is typically in the May 1-7 time frame.

Being wet & cold with frost is quintessential Dogwood to Black Locust Winter.

It was bound to be cold in early May here after such warmth in March & April with vegetation 2 weeks ahead of schedule by late April.

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River & stream flooding continues after 1.10-4.60" of rainfall area-wide Saturday night-Sunday to midday/early afternoon.  Much of this fell early Sunday morning.

For the Wabash, it looks like the highest levels since early 2018.

WABASH RIVER AT LAFAYETTE:

CREST OF 18'  2 AM TUESDAY.

AT 18':

Extensive flooding covers many acres of agricultural land. State Road 225 closed by high water. Granville Bridge Public Access Site flooded. Tippecanoe CR 950 W south of CR 75 S floods in several places from the Wabash Bottoms, Janssen Tract to Warren CR 350 N in the Black Rock Preserve Area, a distance of nearly 1.5 miles. High water affects Fort Ouiatenon area. All parks in the West Lafayette and Lafayette areas are flooded. High water almost on North River Road.

WABASH RIVER AT COVINGTON:

CREST 21.5' 8 AM WEDNESDAY.

AT 21.5':

Lanes to river residences west of South River Road south of Covington flooded. Sandhill Road at Mud Run just northeast of Covington begins to flood. Extensive lowland flooding in progress. Higher bottomlands flood.

Flood water approaching what is at critical height for most agricultural levees.

TIPPECANOE RIVER WILL JUST EXCEED ACTION STAGE BELOW THE OAKDALE DAM TO NEAR DELPHI, BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE, ACCORDING NWS HYDROLOGISTS.

THE EEL HAS CRESTED IN CASS & MIAMI COUNTIES.

Other rivers & creeks & streams are high:

Big Pine Creek is nearing crest 2' above flood stage currently.

The Wildcat at Lafayette has crested at 3.11' above flood stage.

Iroquois should near flood stage in Jasper County, but not exceed it, as will the Tippecanoe in Pulaski County.

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Shortwave of cold air aloft & a vort max will pivot through bringing some showers & t'showers through in the 5 pm-3 am time frame.  Isolated graupal/small hail is possible.

Any rainfall will not increase flooding levels.  It will not be enough rain to cause additional issues.

With increasing clouds, highs today should reach 58-65.

Skies will clear later tonight with patchy to areas of fog developing. 

Some frost is expected with lows 33-38 (coldest north & northeastern counties).

If the clouds can just hang on a little longer, it will not be as cold.  We will monitor.

System Tuesday-Wednesday will stay south of the viewing area, it appears, but we may pick up some high & mid clouds mixed with the cumulus from it.

Highs Tuesday of 58-65 are expected with northeast wind. 

Tuesday night's frost risk is dependent upon the wind & cloudiness.  If we clear out & the wind diminishes, we may have more frost at 32-37.  If we can keep the northeast wind up a bit & keep some high/mid clouds coming in, it will be more like 37-42 with little/no frost.

Wednesday should reach 61-67 for highs.

Skies should clear Wednesday night with lows 36-42 (coldest north & northeast with a few patches of frost).

Thursday & Friday look good with lots of sunshine & highs 65-72 Thursday & 68-76 Friday (Thursday morning low 38-45).

Friday night looks warmer, too, with lows of 47-56.

There is a risk of showers & storms at times every day from Sunday, May 16-21.

Winds look strong from the south-southeast, south & south-southwest. There will be frequent periods of sunshine. 

It will be much warmer with highs in the 70s, then 80s & lows in the 60s.

In terms of severe weather risk, Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday all show evidence of at least MARGINAL RISK parameters reaching the viewing area with front stalling to our north & northwest & surface waves riding along it.

Thursday or Friday, May 20 or 21 shows highest potential at the moment with up to ENHANCED RISK parameters potentially.  We will monitor new data coming in & future SPC official forecasts.

On that or those days, 80s to 90 with dew points 60s to 70s cannot be ruled out.

In terms of rainfall totals for the viewing area, amounts of 2-5" TOTAL are expected May 16-21.  Areas of +7" rainfall may occur from northeastern Kansas to Iowa.

Flooding may return on rivers & streams, potentially.

Additional showers & storms are possible May 23-24 with upper trough swinging through.  MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK severe weather parameters show up, but we will monitor for changes.

After a lull with cooler weather, we should heat up to 90 & 90s with drying trend.

However, there are still signs of potent storm system swinging through near June 1 with severe weather risk here.

Looks like June will begin wet & end dry.  The month looks quite hotter than normal, especially late month.

Lots of 90s expected.  100 is possible late month.

Watch for risk of a Progressive Derecho.  Watch for tornado risk greatly ramping up for a time early in June.

July looks HOT & dry, in comparison to normal.  100 to 100s are possible.

Random Progressive Derecho?  We will need to monitor.

Tropics will be monitored to see if they benefit us with good rainfall in August in an overall hotter & drier than normal pattern.

Tropics looks more active than normal again this year, but it does not look as active as last year.

Tropics would also tend to be a factor in September in an overall warmer, drier pattern.  It could bring us welcome rainfall.

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Beautiful Week Ahead. Cooler, drier and less humid.
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