May 14, 2:15 PM Weather Forecast Update

Summer-like warmth with lots of dry days with some bouts of storms (some severe).

Posted: May 14, 2019 1:24 PM
Updated: May 14, 2019 4:33 PM

As of 1:20 p.m., temperatures run 61-68 over the viewing area with cirrus mixed with some cumulus clouds & nice warm sunshine.

This, after another 36-41 morning with some patchy fog, especially in the eastern half of the viewing.  Visibility dropped to less than 800' at the Logansport-Cass Co. Airport.

Highs today should run 67-73 with cirrus/cumulus mixed with sunshine resulting in a partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky. 

It will not be as cold tonight with lows 43-55.  The large temperature variance over the area will be due to warm front & more clouds in the western & southwestern half. 

The coolest temperatures will be in the far eastern * northeastern fringe of the area.

A few spotty showeres & t'showers are possible along the warm front by early Wednesday morning in our area, largely in the southwestern part of the viewing.

These look to depart mid-morning as warm front lifts northward a bit more.

The front should begin to buckle back southward in the evening.  A couple isolated showers/t'showers are possible with it with sun & clouds.

Rainfall coverage will go from 30% in the morning to 20% in the afternoon.

Highs should run 69-75.

After 48-56 Wednesday night, Thursday looks even warmer with highs 76-83 (warmest southwest) with a mix of clouds & sun.

There will be some severe risk Thursday morning-midday Iowa to Minnesota to Wisconsin (for large hail), but we are looking mainly looking dry for the day as a whole.

I cannot completely rule out an isolated shower/storm or two, but coverage will be kept down to 20%.

Here is the fly in the ointment.  Should an isolated random storm pop, there will be plenty of shear & instability for an isolated severe storm.

Even if there is only one or two that can go (not a well-focused mechanism seen at the moment), the shear, CAPE will be there for severe.

We will monitor.

A cluster of storms may form in southern Wisconsin to northern Illinois Thursday night & rise east & southeastward & clip part of the area late night-early Friday morning.

Otherwise, Friday is looking dry, partly cloudy, windy, warm & rather humid with highs 82-87 after 60s in the morning.

The corridor of storms (& severe weather) will be north, northeast, northwest & west of our area Friday to Sunday early afternoon.

We will be bathed in heat & humidity with strong southwest winds & highs 84-89 Saturday & lows of only 65-70 Saturday night (after 60s Friday night).

Sunday looks very warm to hot & rather humid & windy with highs 80-86.

It does appear that a line of storms may develop in Illinois Sunday & move eastward.

Timing is in question.  Sort of honing in on midday-afternoon time frame presently.

It is a pretty unstable, sheared environment projected, especially if it were to come through in the afternoon.

Severe risk may develop.  I have already been going with "an isolated severe storm possible" for Sunday for a while, but we will monitor for potential upgrades.

Front that moves southward with the line of storms will shoot right back northward with time Monday, turning us back to southwest winds.  Highs will run 78-85 with partly cloudy skies.  Morning lows of 54-63 are likely.

After potential tornado outbreak in the Plains Monday, we need to watch Tuesday.

For the viewing area as a whole, it is the best severe risk we have seen of 2019 & really in more than a year.

High shear, good dynamics in unstable, moist, warm environment have the Supercell Composite lit up in substantially favorable environment for severe weather event.

Looked like squall line with mainly wind at first, but this new data shows all storm modes possible with all threats.

Fly in the ointment would be exact timing of when this comes through.  If it is afternoon-evening, then severe event/outbreak is a sure thing here.

If it is more in the morning, yes there may still be some severe (due to environment), but it may not be a vigorous as it would be a peak heating.

We will monitor.

I went for highs 80-85 Tuesday with the thinking of more midday-afternoon passage of storms.

Take this AT FACE VALUE (with certainly change to storm timing & risk possible so far out) & you got yourself MODERATE RISK parameters here.  That is not the forecast per sey & it doesn't mean that is exactly what we will have, but the set-up shows that.

Sunday-Wednesday period shows high probabilities in the analog data of at least 5 severe weather reports within 110 km of a grid point.

Up to 60% of the top 105 analog (or matches to the pattern) matches show this in our viewing area.

It is a broad corridor from the Plains, through the Corn Belt with even a bulls-eye in the Mid-Atlantic as the storms tend to ride around the edge of the southeastern hot upper ridge.

Analog data shows the heat too with a strong signal of above to well-above normal temperatures in our area & over much of the eastern & southeastern U.S.  Unseasonable cold will reside in the West & Northern Plains.

It stays warm to hot with higher humidity (highs 80s to near 90 with overnight lows 60s to 70) late next week to the next weekend.  Only exception might be Wednesday as front just might sag for enough south for lower humidity & a dry day of 69-76.

Severe parameters light up again by Thursday.

This coincides with warm front in the region in moist, unstable, shear environment with a couple vigorous waves tracking along the front.

This will result in the risk of a couple rounds of severe weather in the Thursday-Saturday time frame with dry time in-between.

Overall, this weekend to next weekend should be the most active severe weather period for the central Plains & Midwest (as a whole) in about a year.

After this, next potential of any severe weather in or very near to our area would be around May 31.

Analog continues to show severe risk in that Plains to Midwest zone May 22-26.

There are more variables at play so far out, so percentages are lower, but you get an idea of the pattern.

50% is pretty high so far out for the Plains, indicating high probability of severe weather outbreaks continuing there.

Heat continues overall late next week to the next weekend (May 22-26).

In terms of rainfall now-June 12 for area farmers.........

Our time table for widespread soaking rain of greater than 60% coverage expected (with drying winds & heat in-between) now-June 10 based on model ensembles as of 2 p.m. Tuesday, May 14:

1.  Sunday, May 19

2.  Tuesday, May 21

3.  Couple rounds possible in the Thursday, May 23-Saturday, May 25 time frame.

4.  Around May 31

5.  June 4

6.  June 11

The area with the greatest risk of heavy, flooding rainfall will occur from Kansas & Nebraska to Iowa to southern Wisconsin northern Illinois to Michigan.  It sure looks like a planting disaster for the western Corn Belt & parts of the Great Lakes.  It will get yet another very late planting or no planting at all in Wisconsin.  This would make three or four in a row.

Rainfall totals now to June 12 will run up to 12" in some of those areas.

Here, from now to early June, rainfall is near normal overall.

Normal rainfall for the viewing area as a whole May 14-June 4 s 3-3.50" of rainfall.

Overall bit below normal rainfall trend is seen after June 4 right to mid June.

There is still no sign of those major rains shifting southward, but we will monitor closely.

Still looks quite warm to hot late May to early June.

Note how the analog data matches the models in showing the main corridor of severe risk shifting northwestward at the end of May to early June. 

Impressive 50% probabilities reside more toward Minnesota & Iowa to even Colorado.

Our probabilities are largely based on severe risk May 31 & June 4 at around 35%.

Rainfall anomalies latter May to the first of June:

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Warm Start, but Cooler Finish with Scattered Showers.
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