SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

May 1, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some more showers & storms.

Posted: May. 1, 2019 12:34 PM
Updated: May. 1, 2019 1:42 PM

We finally got the warm front north of us overnight.  At the Purdue Airport, we hit 68 early this morning after 52 at 2 a.m.

We have had a few showers around this morning to midday.  These will depart & more sun will appear with the clouds.

Highs of 72-78 are likely late this afternoon to early evening.

You can see the areas of clearing skies in central Illinois & over our western & southwestern counties in the viewing area.

A few showers & storms are possible late this afternoon-this evening in the area, but any severe risk looks to stay south of the area in the MARGINAL RISK zone.

You can see this in the simulated radar reflectivity for afternoon-evening.

Main trigger for the severe risk south & southeast of our area is the MCV pivoting through Missouri with temperatures climbing into the 80s in that severe risk zone.

Along a line & southward from Pine Village to Brookston to Logansport & Peru, there is a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather tomorrow.  The SLIGHT RISK is just barely south of the viewing area.

Some showers & storms are possible here, but notice how the main corridor of some clusters & bows of strong to severe storms is mainly south & southeast of our area tomorrow.

Highs here will reach the 70s after around 60 to the 60s for lows tonight.

We will then watch some rain approach again Friday evening (after increasing clouds & highs 62-67 & morning lows of 46-51) as warm front tries to move back northward.

It appears that some rain is possible later Friday night to midday Saturday.

Some clearing should follow with highs 61-66 & lows Saturday night of 43-48.

Warm front will move back northward with time Sunday with sun & winds going to the southwest.  Highs around 70 to the 70s are likely.

The front will move more the south again & some showers & t'storms will return at times Monday morning to Tuesday morning.

It looks like the greatest rainfall coverage will be later Monday night-Tuesday morning.  An isolated severe storm is possible south of I-74.

Note how the front moves south, then it begins to move back northward yet again.

Highs Monday may vary from 64 north to 78 south.

Multiple rounds of showers & storms are possible Tuesday afternoon right to Wednesday evening with the warm front meandering over the area.

We will see a big temperature gradient once again in our area.

Highs Tuesday may vary from 62 north to 80 south.  The front may briefly get far enough north to send the temperature to 75 in the far north with 77-82 elsewhere.

A round of storms will drop the temperature later in the day.

An isolated severe storm is possible Tuesday along & south of an Oxford to Lafayette to Kokomo line.

A few isolated severe storms are possible area-wide Wednesday.

It is unclear where exactly the warm front will set up Thursday.  There has been a shift of the track of the surface low southward.

This would tend to keep us on the cooler (60s) side of the warm front.

It is a close call, however.  Temperatures Thursday may vary from around 90 at St. Louis to 80s across southern Illinois & Indiana.

There, it appears that a pretty robust severe weather threat may develop.  The latest dynamic, shear & instability numbers conincide with SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK in that zone.

Here, we may end up MARGINAL with higher risk if warm front can lift northward.

If the front can get north, then area south of it could easily get into the 80 to 80s range.

It is just the same pattern right to mid-May.

The battle between record warmth & summer southeast of our area & winter & early spring north of our area will continue right over us.

Note the below normal, normal & above normal temperature gradient stuck of us as blocking ridge in the southeast U.S. & blocking ridge west of Greenland to northeastern Canada locks this pattern in place.

We may have only two completely dry days for the entire viewing area May 1-17:  May 3 & 15.

Warm front will move back northward with showers & storms at times May 12-17. 

Once again, there will be some big temperature gradients in the viewing area with 50s & 60s north to 70s & 80s south.

Some isolated severe weather risk is possible at times along & south of the warm front.

From now to May 17, 2.5-5.5" of rainfall is possible for the viewing area.  Note the area of +9" in southern Indiana.

The Plains & western Corn Belt may continue to see above normal rainfall for the latter half of May, but we should go normal to a bit below normal rainfall-wise after May 17.

The southeastern ridge will tend to expand, as will the Canadian ridge, resulting in a wall of warmth along & east of the Mississippi River.  Wet, flooding, cold weather will reside to the west.

The really wet weather tends to shift farther westward in early June.  Rainfall looks slightly below normal here.

In the wetter weather, it looks cooler in the High Plains & westward, but dome of warmth in the East.

I do think it could turn overall cooler & wetter than normal with storminess here after June 10, however.  This period may last for a good week or week & a half.

I also think this could be a time of renewed flooding from Iowa & northern Illinois to Kansas & Nebraska with round after round of storms (many rounds severe).

Overall drying trend should occur after that into late June.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Kokomo
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Rensselaer
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 72°
Fowler
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 72°
Williamsport
Clear
75° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 75°
Crawfordsville
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Frankfort
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
Delphi
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 73°
Monticello
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Logansport
Clear
73° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 73°
A few storms are possible Saturday.
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