May 15, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Summer-like warmth, humidity & bouts of storms with some severe risk ahead.

Posted: May. 15, 2019 12:12 PM
Updated: May. 15, 2019 2:11 PM

Couple/few isolated showers/t'showers are possible this afternoon-evening.  Otherwise, sun/clouds & 69-76 for today.

Patchy fog is likely tonight with lows 50-55.

Couple waves of storms skim by Thursday-Friday.  One towards Thursday evening............(after highs 75-82 north to south with partly cloudy skies)............

..............& the other Thursday night-early Friday morning before very rapidly collapsing.

Much of the area just gets skimmed, so most rainfall totals 0.10" or less.

However, Fulton to northern Miami counties may see up to 0.80", it appears.

There is a MARGINAL RISK of severe weather Thursday evening to Thursday night & early Friday morning for a couple of isolated severe storms possible here.

Main threat is hail presently.

Any storms or MARGINAL RISK of severe weather look to stay north of us Friday.

The outflow boundary from the overnight-early morning storms should lift northeastward & the debri cloudiness should thin, allowing for more & more sun Friday afternoon.

Highs Friday should run 78-84 over much of the area with dew points on the climb to humid 65-68. 

Exception may be northern Newton & Jasper counties, where it stays at 66-72 with more clouds (also, north of the outflow boundary & warm front with northeast wind.......while rest of area will have southwest wind) & potential lake breeze front coming in.

MARGINAL RISK north of us, but severe weather South Dakota & Minnesota to northern Mexico Friday.

Saturday looks partly cloudy to mostly sunny, windy, very warm to hot & humid with highs 84-88 with heat indices 86-92.

The nights will be warm with lows at only 65-70 Friday night & Saturday night.

Line of storms with severe weather risk is likely Sunday late afternoon-evening with highs 82-87 with humid dew points of 67-70 & strong winds from the southwest.

SPC has this SLIGHT RISK area out now.  I do think it will be expanded some north & east in the upcoming updates

Supercell Composite indicative of some SLIGHT RISK getting in here for Sunday.

Data suggests not over-zealous rainfall due to fast-moving nature of Sunday squall line.

Amounts of 0.25-0.60" look possible at the moment (highest totals northwest).

Looks like it could race through at 50-55 mph with mainly a wind risk.

Conditions are certainly favorable for severe weather Tuesday-Thursday period of next week after a dry, warm, tranquil Monday & a dry end to next week.

There are still questions regarding timing of severe weather.

For a while, it has tended to be Tuesday & Thursday with Tuesday showing the highest risk of a severe weather event in the viewing area (best risk since April 2018).

Some data suggests just that:  Tuesday pm & Thursday pm.

Others show more of a Tuesday & Wednesday & dry Thursday.

Meanwhile, some show more of just a Wednesday event.

The timing of the triggers are in question.

Regardless, be aware of severe weather risk from a couple rounds of storms in the Tuesday to Thursday time frame with warm, humid weather.

Flooding rainfall of 3-8" is possible Kansas to northwestern Missouri, Iowa to northwestern Illinois & southern Wisconsin during this time.

Here, between the two rounds, looks more like a total of 0.70-1.30" in general for the viewing area.  There will be a period of dry, windy weather between the two rounds.

Next Friday, Saturday & Sunday look dry, very warm, humid, breezy to windy & summer-like with highs in the 80s to near 90 & lows in the 60s to around 70.

Some storms may return around Monday, May 27.

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Dry, but Cooler For Monday
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