May 13, 11:30 AM Weather Forecast Update

Much warmer weather ahead that is finally consistent.

Posted: May. 13, 2019 9:26 AM
Updated: May. 13, 2019 12:01 PM

Yesterday was miserable, but it was not the coldest Mother's Day on record.

From what I can glean here in the record data set, that was in 1960 when the high on that May 8th Mother's Day was just 45!

The coldest Mother's Day morning was 34 on May 9, 1994.

Latest high temperature below 50? May 31, 1889.

These records for West Lafayette go back to 1879.

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We have had warm days.  In fact, we were in the 80s last week & the Growing Degree Days show up in the trees.  They are a good measure of heat unit accumulation by how far along they are.  Black Locusts just beginning to bloom in the southwest, the Redbuds foliating, Tuliptrees just beginning to bloom & hickories all leafing out show plenty of heat accumulation units.

The problem the entire spring has been that we can't string together more than two really warm days at a time.  We've had plenty of 70s days, too, but they occur singly or in pairs followed by several days of chill.  Some of the warmth has been at night (one night last week it was 73 in the middle of the night then got cooler the next day) & then the days just get much colder, too.

We just haven't had that one week where it is completely warm & dry that we can really really EMBRACE

Well, we finally have a long stretch of warmth ahead that we can EMBRACE!  In fact, it will feel like summer!  

That said, there is still just a little bit more cold to get through.

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Isolated shower or two is possible this afternoon after skies clear quite a bit, then cumulus clouds develop & build over the area with the cold air aloft.

With northwest winds 10-15 mph, highs of 56-63 are likely.  The warmest temperatures wil be in our far western & southwestern areas, coolest in the northeast.

Tonight will be another cold one.  We were 36-41 Friday night & we should drop to 37-43 (coldest east & northeast, warmest far west & southwest) by early Tuesday morning with mostly clear skies.  However, warm front will be approaching & increasing cloudiness may be coming from the northwest into the area by 6 a.m.

The warm front will actually have a wave of scattered showers & t'showers diving southeastward along & north of it in central Illinois, but not here.

Patchy dense fog is possible between 2 a.m. & 7 a.m.

Note the temperature dropping to freezing (32) tonight (white line) in southern Michigan, parts of northern Illinois & southern Wisconsin & even in areas around South Bend, Elkhart, Knox & LaPorte counties.

With warm front lifting northward through the area during the day tomorrow with some areas of cloudiness with the sunshine, highs will rise to 65-73 with southeast to southwest wind developing at 5-10 mph. 

There will be somewhat of a temperature spread due to warm front in the area with coolest temperatures in the northeast & warmest in the far southwest & west.

Lows Tuesday night should drop to 46-56, coolest east & northeast, warmest far west & southwest with some areas of cloudiness pass through at times.

From Illinois to Iowa to Minnesota, there will likely be some spotty storms along & near the warm front Tuesday-Tuesday night.  A few may organize into a small cluster or two, but should not affect our area. 

They will likely drop from Iowa to Illinois & diminish.

Warm front will lift northward Wednesday, completely clearing area.........briefly, getting north of our northern fringe by midday.

It will then move back southward as a cold front.

Around 1 p.m., front should be lined up along the Kankakee River & be moving back southward.

I am currently not expecting much fanfare with this cold front moving back through.  The fanfare should occur south of us with storm action, but not here.

A couple isolated showers are possible & that's about it.

Highs should reach 68-76 Wednesday.

Front will likely move right back northeastward as a warm front Thursday afternoon, which will completely bathe us in nice, very warm, breezy, humid weather Friday!

You can see warm front well lifting northward Thursday & then us being bathed in that warm below (curve in the black lines [with the rainfall in green] to the north of us is the warm front):

Summer warmth comes Friday & Saturday (highs 83-87)!

Dew points rise into the 60s, making it feel a bit uncomfortable.

Overnights will be warm in the 60s to 70 with the strong south-southwest wind.

It appears that front will try to buckle back south Sunday with some storms possible & highs in the 80s with dew points in the 60s.

It may cool & be less humid Monday, but be dry as front drops south of our area (highs 60s to 70).

Front should spring back northward Tuesday with wind & 80s & 60s dew points not only Tuesday, but Wednesday, as well.  Overnights look warm with lows in the 60s to 70 with the strong southwest wind.

Storms with severe risk are possible Thursday evening.  At this point, looks like a squall line sweeping through the area after highs 85-90 & dew points 60s to 70.

Wind is projected as the coming from the same direction through the troposphere:  southwest.  This points to linear situation with line of storms with wind risk rather than clusters & supercells, etc.

We will likely see brief cool-down to highs 60s to 70 & lows 40s behind this cold front.

However, warmth will likely return quickly.

With this warmth overall, here at the rainfall & temperatures anomalies ahead:

Now to May 27 shows above normal rainfall northwest & west of our area & drier east & southeast of here.

There also looks to be a lot of severe weather northwest & west of our area.

We look to average about normal rainfall-wise.

Temperatures will average above normal now-May 27.  There will be a lot of unusually cold weather out West & lots of summer warmth in the East.

It still looks warmer than normal for our area & over much of the eastern U.S. the end of May through early June.

End of May through early June shows below normal rainfall in our area & for much of the eastern U.S.

June-July mean temperature anomalies over the country will tend to look like this.

Cooler Rockies, Southwest & Plains, warmer Eastern part of U.S.

June-July rainfall anomalies should look like this.

Wetter than normal weather should dominate the Rockies to Southwest to Plains.  There will be pockets of drought that develop in the Southeast to Northeast.

Here, rainfall averages out near normal to perhaps a a bit above in part of the area overall.

Summer rainfall can vary considerably over a short distance due to the convective nature of it, but this gives us a good idea on the overall larger-scale pattern.

It think a very robust monsoon will develop in the Southwest in July, resulting in higher flood risk there.  Flood risk may continues in the Rockies & Plains right to July.

August temperatures look just a hair above normal, mainly due to warm nights.

August continues to show tendency for above normal rainfall in the viewing area.

As expected with the traditional El Nino developing, September looks cooler than normal.

For September, I agree with this projection of drier than normal weather in the Northeast & Southeast, but I do think some of the wetness from Iowa to Missouri will sneak into our area.  September may actually end up wetter than normal.

I think October could follow suite with a cooler & wetter than normal pattern, followed by a warmer than normal & drier than normal run November & December 2019.  December could send up way above normal temperature-wise if current trends hold.

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Dry, but Cooler For Monday
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