May 12, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Lots of warmth ahead after this cool spell.

Posted: May. 12, 2019 11:14 AM
Updated: May. 12, 2019 12:50 PM

Happy Mother's Day all of you moms out there! 

This is sort of a second Dogwood Winter or Black Cherry Winter or beginning of Black Locust Winter.  The Flowering Dogwoods are past peak for some as the bracts drop, but peaking for many others, while the Black Cherries are in blossom for a chunk of the area.

A few Black Locusts are beginning to bloom in the southwest & south.

USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station Archive,
USDA Forest Service

Black Cherry

USDA Plant Profile Image

Black Locust

Photo by Jennifer Anderson @ USDA-NRCS PLANTS Database

It will be a cold day brisk northeast to north winds & highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.  The warmest temperatures will be in our northwestern counties.

Rainfall will being to increase late today-tonight & peak overnight as the upper low pivots in.

There is a lot of cold air aloft with it with rather low freezing levels, but no sun or any decent heating to induce thunder or produce small hail or graupal.

Nonetheless, with the cold upper low right overhead tonight, the rain will be icy cold with temperatures dropping to 38-42.

More widespread rainfall action will depart early Monday morning, followed by a few isolated showers possible Monday morning-midday.  A clearing trend will follow with brisk northwest winds 15-24 mph & highs 56-63.

Rainfall totals Sunday afternoon-Monday morning look to run 0.10-0.60" with the lightest totals in the far southwestern part of the viewing area.

Monday night looks like another cold one with lows 38-43.

Tuesday will warm up nicely as winds turn to southwest ahead of a cold front approaching.  High of 68-74 are likely.

A couple waves of showers & storms are possible mid-week as a cold front moves southward, then moves back northward as a warm front.

Temperatures will rise into the 70s with warmer lows in the 50s & 60s.

Once warm front lifts northward, we could see summer-like weather next weekend with temperatures way up into the 80s.

A wave of storms is possible at some point next week, perhaps near May 23/24............could even be a situation of one wave May 20 & another around 24.......we will see.  Exact timing of this/these deepening storm system(s) with severe risk is a bit in question.

Severe weather risk is possible here in our area.

Heat will build in after that (after a very brief wave of cooler weather).

Some areas will hit 90 in the May 26-31 period.

These numbers will be as much as 15 degrees above normal.

The heat continues with varying intensity into early June.  These are the temperature anomalies for June 8.  Normal high is around 80.

So, once the corn & soybeans are planted, they will grow quickly.  Corn that has germinated now will quickly race through VE to V5 growing stage as the nights look warm, as well with persistent warm, humid southerly winds.

We will accumulatin lots of Growing Degree Days (GDDs).

June 12 temperature anomalies.........normal high is around 81.

Early to mid June looks a bit drier than normal with hot upper ridging dominating the eastern & southeastern U.S.

So, after lots of above normal temperatures late May through early June..............

Latter June tends to turn to more normal temperatures to even slightly below normal.  Normal for latter June is around 83.

It also looks to turn a bit wetter with rainfall near normal in latter June.

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Dry, but Cooler For Monday
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