As of 12:45 p.m., temperatures are 62-68 over the viewing area after lows this morning of 32-40 (east to west).
Highs of 66-73 are likely this afternoon with strong south-southwest winds gusting 25-35 mph.
Winds will gust from the southwest 27-36 mph Tuesday. There will be more clouds, but dim sun will still occur & highs should still reach 65-70 after morning lows of 42-50.
Lows Tuesday night-Wednesday morning should only drop to 51-57 over the viewing area with south-southwest winds gusting 27-36 mph.
Wednesday is mostly dry with lots of clouds with bit of sun, strong south-southwest winds gusting as high as 38 mph & highs 65-70.
A few isolated, passing showers are possible. I went for rainfall coverage of 25%.
Line of storms with severe weather risk will occur southern Wisconsin to Oklahoma & then move northeastward.
This should pass through our area, especially over our northwestern counties, Thursday morning.
On the tail end of that & then just all over the area, numerous showers & some t'storms will develop.
An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out at any point morning to evening.
Locally-heavy rainfall is possible.
Highs of 63-70 (northwest to southeast) are expected.
CIPS analog data actually shows pretty decent (SLIGHT RISK parameters) severe weather probability making it into our area Thursday. We will monitor though to see if this begins to transpire.
If it does, I will change the wording from "isolated severe storm or two" at any point Thursday morning-early evening.
Some rainfall is possible later Friday-Friday night to early Saturday. Greatest amount will be in our southern counties. The north will have much less or nothing.
Highs will run in the 50s Friday & Saturday.
Rain & storms are likely Monday, followed by storm risk Monday evening-night.
Robust severe weather risk is likely Texas to southern Missouri to the Lower Ohio Valley to Alabama & Georgia.
Tornado outbreak could occur in the South.
Thinking SLIGHT RISK should reach at least to the Lower Ohio Valley, possible as far north as our southern counties.
MARGINAL RISK parameters show up into our area.
Certainly, the greatest risk is south of our area, but we will likely have a little bit.
We will monitor, however, to see if higher risk does indeed migrate northward.
Then.............after highs 60s to lower 70s.......it is snow showers & flurries & highs 37-41 with lows in the 20s!
A dusting of snow on the daffodils is possible.
Like my grandpa always said, you have three more harder freezes after you hear the first spring peepers in spring!
You can see the analog data showing the probability of at least 10 reports of severe weather (large hail, wind, tornadoes) within 110 km of a gride point reaching as far north as Indiana.
Analog tornado risk shows up tick over parts of Illinois & Indiana.
Probability of significant, large, long-track tornado is in that classic "Dixie Alley" zone from Jackson, Mississippi on March 15-16, then moving through metro Birmingham to northwest Georgia March 16-17.
Total rainfall over the 6-day period of Thursday (March 11) to next Wednesday (March 16) should run
1.5-4" over the viewing area with higher amounts up to 7" southwest of our area.
We should bounce back nicely after March 21-22 with more rain, storms (with some severe risk) & warmth.
Brief cool snap should pop in around March 30, followed a big warm surge with rain & storms & severe risk.
Strong storm system progged to pass around April 10 showed the greatest promise of severe weather currently.