March 7, 1:45 PM Weather Update: Winter Weather Advisory

Here is the latest snowfall forecast.

Posted: Mar 7, 2019 1:21 PM
Updated: Mar 7, 2019 1:51 PM

Winter Weather Advisory is up for Tippecanoe, Warren, Fountain, Montgomery & Clinton counties for snowfall later this evening-tonight.

What looked to be a pretty clear-cut situation yesterday, models have been all over the place the past 24 hours.  This U.S. NSSL model now shifts the main snow band waaaaaaaay south & puts the +6" amounts in far southeastern Indiana & northern Kentucky!

NAM 3km & other short range models do much of the same thing.

Note how they only bring 1" or less to our viewing area & northing in the far north & northeast!

Even the lower resolution NAM does the same thing, though it does bring a light dusting to the far north & northeast.

Analog says this band of heavier snowfall should be much farther north & right over our area.

Looking at current radar, this make some sense.  We have had light to moderate snow falling south of us for a while today & it is moving east.  Parts of southwest Indiana have had snow since 9 a.m. with totals now as much as 1".

However, there is still snow central Illinois to Iowa moving eastward, so it wouldn't make much sense that our totals would be 1" or less. 

My consensus is that the heavier snowband has shifted south & southeast, but I am not going to alter the forecast much.  This is largely due to snow to our west & my disliking of just being a model rider without more thinking behind it.

That said, snow is approaching Warren, Fountain & Montgomery counties now.  Snow from Illinois & Iowa will overspread the entire viewing area this evening-tonight.  It may ends as drizzle & some freezing drizzle tomorrow morning.

So, 1-3" looking good along & south of U.S. 24 with 1" or less north of it.

3-4" is possible in Warren, Fountain, Montgomery counties.

Amounts greather than that look to stay south of our area.

So, this went from our 3-6" band right over the area with tongue of +6" in far western areas to that band being shifted southward by a good 70-100 miles.  In terms of analog & climatology in this situation back 50 years, this doesn't make a lot of sense.  Strong agreement that the band & heavier totals should be right over the area with nose of +6" from 15 rather similar systems over the past 40 years.

We will see what transpires!

I will have a snowfall map up soon.

Good thing is that temperatures will warm quickly tomorrow morning & roads will improve quickly.

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