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March 6, 8 PM Weather Forecast Update

Heavy rainfall risk March 11-22...Flooding risk going up in the days & weeks ahead...

Posted: Mar 6, 2021 7:32 PM
Updated: Mar 6, 2021 8:31 PM

NICE SATURDAY.....CONTINUED NICE & WARMEST WEATHER SINCE NOVEMBER (BUT WITH MORE WIND):

After 21-27 this morning, highs today reached 45-55 (northeast to southwest) with lots of sunshine.

Lows tonight should drop to 25-29, followed by highs tomorrow of 52-61 (northeast to southwest) with sunshine.

Lows Sunday night should run 33-41 east to west.

Winds should be east 5-13 mph, becoming southeast at 5-10 mph, then south-southwest 8-13 mph.

Monday looks warm & breezy to windy (gusts 25-35 mph) from the southwest with sunshine & some clouds.  By 1 p.m. we should already be at 61-65 over the viewing area, headed for 64-70.

With clouds/sun & windy weather (south-southwest winds gusting 30-40 mph), highs Tuesday should reach 66-72 after morning lows of 43-51.

TURNING MUCH WETTER WITH EVEN SOME T'STORMS WEDNESDAY LATE-THURSDAY NIGHT (BIT OF SEVERE RISK):

Wednesday looks windy, mostly cloudy & warm with a few passing showers & t'storms late in the day.  However, coverage should be limited to 35%.

Highs of 67-72 are expected aftern morning lows of only 54-59.

Showers & t'storms should increase with time Wednesday night. 

Severe weather risk should line up from southeastern Minnesota to Texas Wednesday.  Much of it will be MARGINAL RISK, however, an area of SLIGHT RISK is likely over northern Texas to Oklahoma to southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri & northwestern Arkansas.

MARGINAL RISK parameters show up for all or part of our area Thursday PM.  This risk extends back to Oklahoma.  There, a pocket of SLIGHT RISK parameters show up.

So, periods of showers & t'storms are likely Thursday with the risk of an isolated severe storm or two.

Highs of 63-70 are expected after morning lows of 57-61 with strong south-southwest wind.

By Thursday night, as rainfall tapers, 1-2.25" is possible.

MORE PERIODS OF RAINFALL & EVENTUALLY MORE T'STORMS FRIDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT (BIT OF SEVERE RISK).......FLOODING RISK:

After a brief break, more rainfall is expected Friday.  However, winds will be from the northeast & east with cooler highs in the 50s to near 60.

Severe weather risk should stay over Oklahoma, Arkansas to southern Missouri Friday.

After a brief lull, more rainfall is expected Saturday-Sunday.  Warm front may move northward & our wind go back to the south & south-southwest with gusts +30 mph.

Highs may surge to the 60s.

Line of storms is possible Sunday PM with risk of isolated severe weather.

Right now, parameters look MARGINAL RISK with SLIGHT RISK parameters south of the area. 

We will monitor.

Another 1.5-3" of rainfall is possible Friday-Sunday night.

A grand total of 2.50-5" of rainfall is possible Wednesday-Sunday night.

Flash & river flooding is possible.

There will be a band of up to 7" of rainfall, but that currently looks to be setting up over central Illinois.  If that shifts, then we may end up with an even bigger flooding situation.

SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH EVEN SOME SNOWFLAKES........MARCH 16-18:

As a shot of colder air comes in, a few snow flurries & snow showers are possible with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows in the 20s around March 16-18.

BIG WARM-UP WITH MORE SHOWERS & T'STORMS (SOME SEVERE RISK).....FLOODING RISK:

Warm front moves back northward, bathing us in warmth with strong south to south-southwest winds by March 20.

Highs in the 60s to lower 70s should occur.

0.75-1" rainfall is possible.

Showers & storms are likely March 21 to early March 22.

MARGINAL RISK parameters show up with SLIGHT RISK parameters south of the area.  SLIGHT RISK parameters may shift northward.

We will monitor.

Dry slot should come in with sunshine & 60s after the showers/storms.

Cool shot with highs in the 40s to 50 with lows in the 20s should follow around March 24-25.

OVERALL WARM, WET, STORMY WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER & CONTINUED FLOODING RISK.....MID-APRIL COOL-DOWN WITH DRIER WEATHER:

Warmth & showers & storms should return by March 27 with warm weather with highs around 70 to the 70s possible with at least some isolated (MARGINAL RISK parameters) severe risk at this point.  Potential is there for higher severe risk.

Another 0.75-1.25" rainfall is possible.

So, flooding will continue to be an issue & rivers & streams will become chronically high with multiple crests possible on the Wabash River.

Wet, stormy, warmer pattern should continue into April.

There is a sign of cooler, drier weather for a period in mid-April with the last freeze for a good chunk of the area, followed by the return of warmth & rainfall with severe weather risk.

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