Snow is likely Thursday evening-Thursday night before ending as some drizzle/light rain Friday morning as temperatures rise from 27-32 to 33-37.
1-3" is expected in the northeast half, 3-6" elsewhere & a nose of perhaps isolated +6" just barely making it into western Warren County.
Much of the area will get either the 1-3" or 3-4" of snow.
The weekend storm system continues to pick up speed. In fact, it may get here early enough for some freezing drizzle & patchy light freezing rain early Saturday morning at its onset.
Then, band of heavier rainfall will pivot through in the afternoon-evening. It does not look to warm up much Saturday until after dusk. Much of the day will see temperatures in the 30s, then the 40s. Despite this, elevated instability from all of the warmth south of the warm front will ride over the area, resulting in the potential of a couple embedded t'storms.
It will not be until after the band of rain exits that we warm into the 50s with southwest winds & some clearing.
Severe risk looks to stay south of the warm front Saturday where temperatures will warm further.
Given the set-up & the strength of the system, certainly Enhanced Risk would be warranted down the road, however, this Arctic Blast penetrated extremely deep into the Gulf of Mexico. So, there will be considerable recycling of that airmass moving northward. This may cut down on overall instability (CAPE) surging northward with the system & would tend to cut severe risk a bit.
The cold front should pass 11 p.m.- 1 a.m. with just a narrow line of gusty showers, followed by low clouds pivoting back in.
Some scattered flurries & snow showers are possible Sunday morning to early afternoon with strong northwest winds gusting 35-45 mph.
Temperatures will continue to fall. After rising to 52-56 Saturday evening, they will fall to the 30s by Sunday morning & stay in the 30s through the afternoon.
A total of 0.75-1.20" of rainfall is likely.
Bitter cold tries to sneak in early next week with highs in the 30s early in the week.
However, mid to late week system will tend to push it back north a bit.
Showers are likely later Wednesday-Thursday with temperatures warming to the 40s & 50s. The rain may end as snow.
Cold will follow & March 16-20 looks raw & cold, in relation to average March temperatures. Some snow showers are possible at times.
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