Snow Thursday evening-night looks to end as drizzle Friday morning as temperatures rise from 27-32 to 34-38.
There is a trend to shift the 3-5" band south of the viewing area tonight & keep it around 1" to as much as 3".
Saturday's rain may begin as some freezing drizzle/freezing rain early in the morning, then go to a steady rain. Rainfall intensity should peak late afternoon to early evening before it ends. A few embedded t'storms are possible with this rain.
Severe weather risk may get as far north as St. Louis & Evansville along & south of warm front where temperatures will rise into the 60s.
We look to be north of the triple point Saturday, keeping it cool here with the mild air not coming until we get the dry slot.
Much of the day will be the 30s, then 40s.
Once rain departs, we should rise to 52-56 over the area.
Actual cold front may have a narrow line of gusty showers, followed by low clouds rolling in with some flurries & snow showers late Saturday night to Sunday.
Winds may gust up to 45 mph Saturday night-Sunday from the southwest & west, then northwest.
Total rainfall of 0.60-1.20" is likely.
Note the severe weather parameters flaring up Texas to Arkansas to Louisiana to southwestern Indiana - all south of the warm front.
Dynamics & shear are very impressive for a pretty big outbreak with Enhanced to Moderate Risk scenario. However, the stratus deck in the eastern Gulf of Mexico of the moderating Arctic air will get entrained into the system. This recycling of more stable air may mitigate severe risk some.